Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s widening budget deficit: red flag or red herring? The recent loosening of fiscal policy in Turkey seems, in part, to be a justified response to the economic slump following last year’s coup attempt. But any sign that it represents the start of a more... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Jun.) Mortgage approvals among the high street banks stagnated in June. But while weaker economic growth and falling buyer enquires mean the near-term outlook is subdued, there is scope for a gentle... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q2) The first estimate of Q2 GDP revealed that the economy gained a little bit of momentum in the second quarter, but growth is still too weak to prompt the Monetary Policy Committee to hike interest... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe: inflation eases, but not for long The scale of the decline in inflation in Central Europe over the past month has taken many by surprise and reinforced expectations in the financial markets that monetary policy will remain very loose... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2) The RBA will probably look through the decline in headline inflation in the second quarter, especially given that underlying price pressures were slightly stronger than it had anticipated. That said... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade rebound in May bodes well for Q2 The latest CPB data add to evidence that April’s large drop in global trade volumes was a one-off – not the start of a marked downturn. Indeed, the signs are that world trade expanded fairly strongly... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Brussels prime office rental prospects looking brighter Very low Grade A vacancy and steady net absorption are likely to see Brussels rental growth forecasts for this year blown out of the water. We think rents could climb by 12% and a further 3% in 2018. 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metals imports point to strong demand so far in 2017 China’s detailed trade data, released yesterday, revealed that metals demand was strong in the first six months of the year, which helps to explain the recent price rallies. That said, we expect... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The small rise in the Conference Board consumer confidence index in July takes it to its second highest reading in 16 years, and suggests that consumption growth will accelerate in the second half of... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and the rising populist threat It’s still too soon to say how next year’s presidential elections in Brazil will pan out, but it’s not impossible to see how voters might return an economic populist to the Planalto. If so, there are... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s central bank pauses before launching easing cycle Nigeria’s central bank kept its key interest rate on hold at 14.00% today, but the governor’s speech made it clear that policy loosening is on the agenda. We expect 200bp of cuts by the end of this... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Department store yield gap unlikely to fall further John Lewis’ announcement that it may utilise some store space to provide co-working office facilities is a reminder that department store tenant demand is soft. As such, while still high by past... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (May) Case-Shiller reported a marginal easing in monthly house price pressures in May. But that softening reflects problems with the seasonal-adjustment process. Annual growth was unchanged at a robust 5.6%... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Drop in inflation will keep Fed on hold for now The unexpected decline in core inflation over recent months is only partly due to transient factors and suggests that, after raising rates twice in the first half of the year, the Fed will hike rates... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jul.) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey continues to suggest that the recent weakness in the hard manufacturing data will soon be reversed. And the quarterly balances suggest that the improvement will be... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
