UK Markets Chart Pack Fall in inflation dampens rate hike expectations The release of weaker-than-expected inflation data for June has seen the chances of an imminent rate hike diminish. Nonetheless, investors still see it as a distinct possibility before the end of the... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland Consumer Prices (Jul.) July’s rise in headline inflation was driven entirely by higher house prices and far overstates the extent of price pressures in Iceland. With underlying inflation set to stay below zero, we expect... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June’s retail sales figures suggest that recent talk of a marked consumer slowdown has been overdone and provides another reason to think that next week’s GDP figures should reveal a re-acceleration... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further reductions to Board’s inflation forecasts still needed The Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of the economy yet again at today’s meeting. But the Board’s inflation forecasts remain far too optimistic even after renewed downgrades. We reiterate our... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) The surge in full-time jobs in June is likely to fuel growing expectations that the RBA will begin to raise interest rates by the first half of 2018. But despite this latest improvement there is still... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP laying the groundwork for 2019 The result of India’s presidential election is due to be announced later today. It won’t have direct implications for the economy since the role of president is largely ceremonial. But the result... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jun.) Export volumes probably fell slightly in Q2 while import volumes rose sharply so net trade turned into a drag on GDP growth. However, strong gains in industrial production still point to another solid... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policy controls drive property demand to small cities The resilience of home sales in China (up 18% y/y in June) has raised questions about the effectiveness of government efforts to cool the sector, which have been stepped up in recent months. In fact... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities back in favour Investors have turned more positive on the outlook for commodity prices in the last month, reflected in a general rise in net-long futures positions. Sentiment has improved on the back of strong... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another large drop in crude stocks provides further evidence that the market is slowly starting to rebalance. Gasoline stocks also fell as output from refineries dropped back. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Vancouver housing remains in the doldrums Despite widespread claims by housing pundits that Vancouver’s housing market is recovering from last year’s slump, the incoming data so far this month continue to show that home sales there are... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Are bond “bubbles” bursting? Although the yields of government bonds remain very low compared to their averages since the early 1980s (see Chart below), this does not imply that their valuations are still extremely inflated, as... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Tweaking our forecasts for the Fed, Treasuries and the dollar 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Housing starts surprised on the upside in June, with the 8.3% m/m increase breaking a three-month run of declines. While rising material prices dented homebuilder confidence in July, very tight market... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales volumes grew by 1.1% m/m in May, evidence that the industrial sector rebounded in the second quarter. While sales were boosted by a large gain in transportation, there were some... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russian activity data for June suggest that the economy grew by 1.5% y/y over Q2 as a whole. That would be the fastest pace of GDP growth since 2013 and supports our view that growth both this year... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
