China Activity Monitor Growth stable in Q2, but momentum slowing Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that growth in China remained strong in Q2, although our new seasonally-adjusted data point to a marked slowdown in momentum since the start of the year. 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is faster productivity growth holding back service inflation? We’re not much convinced by suggestions from the Bank of Japan that firms cutting back on the hours their employees work has contributed to the continued lack of inflation pressure. Very low and... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Second half of the year bodes well for coffee Last month, the spread between arabica and robusta coffee prices fell to its lowest level in over ten years. Elsewhere, France recently announced that it will curb the use of palm oil in biofuels... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo & French INSEE Business Confidence (Jul.) July’s increase in German Ifo business sentiment to a new record high suggests that neither the euro’s rise nor hints of QE tapering have taken the steam out of the economic upturn so far. 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (May) GDP growth was weaker than anticipated at the start of the year, but the pick-up in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) in May is consistent with a bounce back in the second quarter. At this stage... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will US corporate credit spreads stay low? US corporate credit spreads surged three years or so ago after falling to the levels that they have approached again recently. Nonetheless, we doubt that history is about to repeat itself. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM consumers bouncing back EM retail sales growth picked up for a third consecutive month in May and is now running at a 12-month high. What’s more, the improvement has been widespread across different EM regions. In Russia and... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook All good, for now Commodity prices have held up well over the last quarter, encouraged by positive economic data out of China, falling expectations of US interest rate rises and signs that crude oil stocks are finally... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Given the very low level of inventory, the 1.8% m/m drop in existing home sales in June was expected. Sales have now made no progress over the past year, even as robust housing demand means those... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jul.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that manufacturing growth in advanced economies started Q3 on a strong note. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Healthy global growth to continue supporting equities for now 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) & IGAE (May) Mexican inflation remained unchanged in the first half of July which, combined with the latest activity data suggesting that GDP growth slowed in Q2, reinforces our view that Banxico’s tightening... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI leaves it still consistent with fairly strong growth. While the survey’s price indices also edged down, this seems unlikely to deter the ECB from tapering... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The second consecutive drop in the output index of the manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector is slowing. But the survey still points to faster increases in consumer prices. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally likely to fade before year end The rally in the Canadian dollar to a 14-month high of US$0.79, from US$0.74 a month ago, is likely to fade before year end. While higher oil prices might allow a temporary lift in the coming months... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Likely sticking points no surprise While the second round of negotiations made little substantive progress towards a final agreement, it did highlight the areas where there is the most work to do. Meanwhile, economic data suggested... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
