Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth likely to have nudged down a little in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth picked up slightly in May, but this partly reflects a bounce from a soft April. The bigger picture is that overall EM growth looks to have nudged down a bit in... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transitional agreement increasingly likely The view on both sides of the channel seems to be that agreeing the terms of the UK’s withdrawal will take longer than initially hoped. As a result, a transitional deal allowing freedom of movement... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: OPEC ‘cap’ will have little economic effect Nigeria’s agreement with OPEC to cap oil production is unlikely to have much impact on the economy; output was never likely to rise significantly above this level in any case. The key point is that... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Election won’t solve Malaysia’s institutional problems There is growing speculation that Malaysia’s prime minister, Najib Razak, will take advantage of the recent strength of the economy by calling an early general election. The weak state of the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The 2.6% annualised gain in real GDP in the second quarter was driven by a rebound in real consumption growth, and suggests that the economy is still on track to grow by around 2.2% in 2017 as a whole... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) Despite the recent slump in home resales, monthly GDP growth accelerated by 0.6% m/m in May, which will reinforce the Bank of Canada’s confidence that the economy can perhaps withstand higher interest... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth recovered in Q2, set to hold up well Data published this week suggest that global economic growth almost certainly picked up a bit in Q2. We expect it to remain fairly rapid for the next year or two, even as China’s economy loses steam. 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What if the euro keeps on rising? This week, the euro reached its highest level against the US dollar since before QE began. It would probably take a much larger appreciation to knock the economic recovery completely off course. But a... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s wider current account deficit not a cause for alarm A large chunk of the recent widening of Morocco’s current account deficit to around 5% of the GDP can be explained by a one-off jumps in import, mainly related to the expansion of capacity in the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we no longer trust the business surveys? Once again the business surveys provided an over-optimistic reading of the economy’s health in the second quarter. This raises questions about their usefulness as a leading indicator, and suggests... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: monetary easing cycle to resume in coming months The Russian central bank’s decision to pause its easing cycle was motivated by last month’s higher-than-expected inflation outturn. But we expect inflation to fall back to the central bank’s target... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does Pakistan’s political crisis mean for the economy? The resignation of Pakistan’s prime minister, Nawaz Sharif following the decision by the country’s Supreme Court to disqualify him from office, has once again put the spotlight on the country’s highly... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s unchanged reading for HICP inflation in Germany suggests that euro-zone inflation probably remained at 1.3% in July. German core inflation is set to creep higher over the rest of the year, but... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jul.) July’s EC survey points to a sharp acceleration in euro-zone GDP growth. But we doubt that the economy will perform quite as well as the survey suggests. And with inflation expectations low, tighter... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that growth softened a touch in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe at the start of Q3. But the surveys are still consistent with... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
