Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss franc set for further small depreciation The Swiss franc was the worst performing major currency last month. While the franc’s depreciation has been stronger than we had anticipated, we still see it depreciating a little further against the... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) July’s ‘whole economy’ PMIs for the MENA region suggest that recoveries in the nonoil sectors of the Gulf economies resumed at the start of Q3, while conditions in Egypt’s economy appear to have... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jul.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation, to 9.8% y/y last month, from 10.9% y/y in June, is likely to make the central bank more confident that it can reverse the monetary tightening... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another increase in refinery runs led to a fall in crude oil stocks last week. We expect refinery runs to remain high in the coming weeks. This should lead to a sharp drawdown in inventories and help... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would an escalation of US sanctions mean for Venezuela? The decision by the US Treasury to sanction Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro was on the more benign end of the spectrum of options reportedly under consideration and is unlikely to have much... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals start Q3 on a strong note A weaker US dollar and stronger Chinese economic data boosted metals prices last month. Aluminium was the only exception. (See Chart.) In most cases, industrial metals prices are now more aligned with... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Outlook for UK monetary policy points to higher Gilt yields 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investors focus on prime property in Italy With better rental growth prospects for prime property in Italy, compared to secondary, we think that a continued focus by investors on prime assets will see yields edge down over the next 18 months. 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy sees temporary recovery after Q1 slump Our GDP Tracker suggests that the pace of contraction in Saudi Arabia’s economy eased between March and April. However, that is likely to be temporary, and we expect Saudi GDP to fall at a steeper... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) Mortgage applications fell in July, primarily due to a fall in refinancing. But home purchase applications dropped too, held back by low inventory. So while robust job creation and easing lending... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI rate cut to be followed by prolonged hold The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) went with consensus expectations in cutting its repo rate by 25bp to 6.00% today. But it also acknowledged that inflation would soon be rising again. As such, further... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jul.) The CIPS/Markit Construction PMI dropped significantly in July. And while we agree that rental value growth is likely to slow, we suspect that the latest commercial balance is overstating the risk of... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the Bank of Japan giving up on its 2% inflation target? Comments today by BoJ Board Member Funo suggest that the Bank has given up on reaching its inflation target any time soon. Market expectations of policy tightening are likely to recede further as a... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The latest PMIs, published today, suggest that global manufacturing growth continues to be quite rapid and add to evidence that the world economy has plenty of momentum. 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery soft at the start of Q3 July’s PMI data remain consistent with a continued expansion in EM manufacturing, albeit at a pace that is down slightly from the highs seen at the start of the year. 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Jul.), Income & Spending (Jun.) Despite the small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July, the index is still above its average level in the second quarter and is consistent, on past form, with GDP growth of over 3%... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
