Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egyptian inflation likely to fall by more than most expect Egyptian inflation rose to its highest rate since 1986 in July, but it has been pushed up by a number of one-off factors that will fade over the next six-to-nine months. Indeed, we think inflation has... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Jun.) The Swedish industrial and services sectors have been performing well of late and the outlook is positive. With the Swedish economy firing on all cylinders, it won’t be long until the Riksbank changes... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production (Jun.) Although French industrial production fell sharply in June, the sector fared better in Q2 than it did in Q1. And the continued strength of the surveys suggests that June’s decline does not mark the... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation in Norway continued on its downward trend in July, and it is likely to fall a little further over the rest of the year. We think that it will remain well below target over the next few years... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to markets: Forget about rate hikes Graeme Wheeler didn’t go out with a bang at his last policy meeting as Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as interest rates were left at 1.75% for the ninth month in a row. But he stressed... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The ninth consecutive weekly fall in US commercial crude stocks provides further evidence that the market is rebalancing. We expect this trend to continue over the next few months at least, which... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Vienna retail rents could fall further in real terms Competition from prime shopping centres and questions about affordability mean that prime high street rents in Vienna will struggle to keep pace with inflation over the coming years, leading to... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How big a deal is US-North Korea sabre-rattling for markets? 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) Mexican inflation nudged up to a fresh eight-year high in July, but this is unlikely to be enough to change the central bank’s view that its tightening cycle is over. As such, we continue to expect... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Jul.) Brazilian inflation fell to a fresh decade-low in July but is now close to bottoming out. As such, while it’s a close call, our base case remains that Copom will cut interest rates by 75bps (rather... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are similarities with 2007 a cause for concern? Today is the tenth anniversary of the start of the global financial crisis (GFC), which triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Some are of the view that history may be about to... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Disputed result raises risk to economy Claims of tampering in yesterday’s Kenyan election have increased fears of a violent dispute. A crisis may still be avoided, but the risk of a deadly (and economically damaging) dispute is increasing. 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will EM equities’ valuations continue to climb? The latest surge in emerging market (EM) equities has seen the price/12 month forward earnings ratio of the MSCI EM Index climb further above its long-run average. Nonetheless, we still think that... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jul.) July’s stronger-than-expected Czech inflation data support our view that the National Bank’s monetary tightening cycle will be more aggressive than the markets are pricing in. While our central view... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The fall in consumer confidence to a 16-month low in August widens the disparity between glum households and gleeful businesses. With confidence at a level consistent with a slowdown in consumption... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys point to pick-up in wages and investment The latest JOLT and NFIB surveys show that labour market conditions remain unusually tight and, while this is still not translating into significantly faster wage growth, it might finally be prompting... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
