Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth nudges down in Q2 Emerging market (EM) export growth slowed a touch in Q2 and the early signs are that it weakened a little further at the start of the current quarter. However, the slowdown is very gradual – EM... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What does the North Korean crisis mean for gold prices? The price of gold was a key beneficiary of the recent increase in tensions between the US and North Korea. While we think that the chances of a full-scale war are quite slim, there remains huge... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Geopolitical tensions halt Swiss franc’s slide The Swiss franc has had a rocky ride over the past month. In late July, it depreciated sharply to SFr1.15 to the euro, its lowest level since January 2015 when the Swiss National Bank abandoned its... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Productivity growth likely to remain muted The recent pick-up in productivity growth is at least partly due to tighter conditions in the labour market, with the dwindling pool of the unemployed forcing firms to invest in additional... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2017) Russia’s better-than-expected 2.5% y/y GDP growth recorded in Q2 supports our view that the recovery from the recent recession would surprise many on the upside. We have revised our forecasts, which... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) Mexican industrial production grew by a below-consensus 0.1% m/m in June, confirming that the sector broadly stagnated over Q2 as a whole. As such, it shouldn’t trigger any major revisions to the... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The weakness in core CPI inflation persisted in July, although transitory factors continued to play a sizeable role. 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Position papers pending Ahead of the publication of the UK Government’s next batch of position papers, there has been little in the way of Brexit developments this week. Meanwhile, the latest economic data was rather mixed... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s industrial production data show that growth in the sector weakened on the eve of the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). The transition to the new tax is likely to continue to... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Markets appear surprised by bearish WASDE data The prices of wheat and soybeans plunged after the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised up its estimates of global production. What’s more, it is projecting that global inventories of wheat and... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will North Korea tensions continue to weigh on US equities? The recent escalation of tensions between the US and North Korea has weighed on the S&P 500. But provided that war is avoided, we doubt that this marks the start of a sustained downturn in the index. 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Ten years on, is the euro-zone out of the woods? Ten years ago this week marked the start of the global financial crisis and a challenging time for the euro-zone economy. In many respects, the euro-zone finally appears to be out of the woods. Growth... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will consumers remain resilient? Given that there have been few signs in the hard data yet of a rebalancing towards the external and corporate sectors, the fate of the economy – in the near term at least – still seems to rest in the... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) Hong Kong’s economy continued to expand at a rapid pace in Q2, driven by strong household spending and investment. But we think GDP growth will slow in the second half of the year. The recent strength... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How is Brexit shaping up? This Focus discusses what we have learnt about the Brexit negotiations so far. It addresses four key questions. First, are there now signs that Brexit worries are weighing on the economy? Second, how... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank holds interest rates, but signals further easing Peru’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.75% last night, but used the accompanying statement to signal that further easing is on the way. As such, we continue to expect one... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
