UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) The headline rate of annual house price growth decelerated to just 2.1% in July. And with buyer enquiries falling, all signs point to house price growth staying weak over the remainder of the year. 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Jul.) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be disappointed that July’s small rise in core inflation was driven by imported rather than domestically-produced products. As inflation expectations are consistent... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jun.) Despite the decline in German industrial production in June, the sector performed well in Q2 as a whole. So we still think that the German economy gathered pace in the second quarter. And surveys... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy seemingly unfazed by housing slowdown Despite softening home sales, the incoming data point to solid GDP growth in the second quarter, possibly outpacing the 3.7% q/q annualised rate posted in the first quarter. Needless to say, the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Better economic news boosts industrial commodities A sharp rise in China’s July manufacturing PMI boosted the prices of most commodities last week, but we don’t think that the upturn in China’s economic activity will be sustained, given the increasing... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Investment to shake off recent weakness Much of the focus of the press conference following the Bank of England’s August policy decision and Inflation Report was on the contribution of Brexit to the downgrade of its near term growth... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Although employment rose by a moderate 10,900 in July, the much larger gain in full-time jobs and drop in the unemployment rate to 6.3%, from 6.5%, are encouraging and point to stronger wage growth... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worrying about consumers? Annual revisions to the income and spending data released this week mean that the household saving rate is now estimated to have fallen sharply over the past year, calling into question the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update HK property prices set to fall as interest rates rebound The prospect of a property downturn triggered by monetary tightening in the US has long been the biggest risk hanging over Hong Kong’s economy. But while US interest rates have risen this year, rates... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.) The 209,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, together with the drop back in the unemployment rate to a joint 16-year low, suggests the Fed will still need to raise rates again this year, even if... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Russian inflation last month means that the central bank, having paused its easing cycle last week, looks set to cut interest rates at next month’s Board meeting. 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the euro-zone continue to outperform? In the first half of this year, GDP in the euro-zone expanded at a faster pace than that in either the US or the UK. But while we remain very positive on the outlook for the euro-zone economy, the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is an early lift-off from the MPC now off the cards? The surprisingly-dovish reaction of sterling to the Bank of England’s August Inflation Report has led some commentators to conclude that the prospect of an interest rate hike this year is now dead and... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update How strong is demand for coal, really? The lack of timely coal consumption data on a monthly basis – at least at a global level – makes it difficult to determine changes in coal demand in the short term. Our new Capital Economics World... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Steady first half cloaks the positive truth for Paris offices Office space in Paris’ CBD is in short supply and tenants are having to compete for larger floorplates. This will push prime rental values up at above-inflation rates of 3% and 4% respectively in 2018... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
