Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) The euro-zone’s efforts to put its public finances in order continued in Q1, with the region’s budget deficit shrinking to its lowest level since mid-2007. And timelier central government fiscal data... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A weaker US dollar boosts commodities The prices of most commodities rose last month. In part, this was due to a weaker dollar. But stronger economic activity data for China also played a role. We think that growth in China is likely to... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) According to Corelogic, annual house price growth rose to 6.7% in June. But while market conditions remain tight, new homes inventory is steadily rising and cautious home appraisals are holding back... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The fact that Brazilian industry stagnated in month-on-month terms in June is partly payback for strong outturns in April and May. What’s more, industry still expanded by 0.5% q/q in the second... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs paint a mixed picture While the unofficial PMI data point to an acceleration in economic growth in July, we don’t think that the upturn will be sustained, given the increasing headwinds from policy tightening. This view... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Preliminary Flash) Euro-zone GDP in the first half of the year was a little weaker than expected. But the Q2 outturn may yet be revised up, and with surveys pointing to continued fairly strong growth at the start of Q3... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI. (Jul.) July’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI suggests that growth in the sector has accelerated after the disappointing performance in Q2. It also implies that the fall in the pound is boosting external... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell to an eight year low in July. The indicator, however, frequently overstates weakness, and we doubt things were that bad. 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) Annual house price growth edged downward in July. With houses already very expensive, new buyer enquiries falling and transactions stagnating, we expect house price inflation to stay in the low single... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Norwegian Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) July’s Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs point to a continued pick-up in industrial output growth in both countries. But the Swedish survey’s price index implies some downside risks to... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that the recovery in Russia’s economy continued at the start of Q3, but provided further evidence that growth in the rest of the region... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities rapid rise continues Equity markets in Asia continued their rise in July. Meanwhile, currencies in the region generally strengthened against the US dollar 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Big gains for Turkish equities behind us The surge in Turkish equities earlier this year appears to have been aided by improvements in the real economy, but the more recent rise has been due to global risk appetite. There is scope for... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish political scandal lowers chance of tax hikes After last week’s political scandal, Sweden’s Government needs to boost its popularity. So the Government seems likely to row back from planned tax hikes ahead of next year’s general election. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
