Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Mixed performances for Nordic and Swiss currencies After fairly big rises in yields in June, July was a quieter month for Nordic & Swiss government bonds. There was more action in the currency market, with the Norwegian krone and Swedish krona rising... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM Inflation drops to eight-year low as fuel prices slow EM inflation fell in June to its lowest rate since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. With the decline in fuel inflation close to bottoming out, we think EM inflation will trough in the... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul.) July’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that retail spending started Q3 on a solid footing and should be able to maintain recent rates of growth. 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Major economies rebound, policy easing gains pace The latest data support our view that the recoveries in Sub-Saharan Africa’s big three economies will be stronger than most expect. Activity data in Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola all suggest that... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q2) Today’s RICS Commercial Survey showed that occupier and investment demand present a subdued outlook for office and retail property. However, the industrial sector looks poised to outperform the rest... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China and India’s gold imports (Jun.) The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports rose in June. Nonetheless, we think that demand will lose momentum in the second half of the year as slower growth in China and a new... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Lower global inflation will not prevent policy “normalisation” The global picture for monetary policy has changed a little recently because inflation has been lower than expected in many countries. We now think the Fed is likely leave its policy rate on hold in... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) June’s euro-zone money and credit data point to downside risks to growth. But firms and consumers have scope to fund extra spending without borrowing, and with confidence high, we remain optimistic... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (July) & Labour Data (June) Both the Swedish Economic Tendency Survey and labour market indicators point to increasing wage and price pressures. This supports our view that the Riksbank and markets are underestimating how soon... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has pay growth slowed? We had expected nominal pay growth to remain pretty sluggish – but not to start slowing! Since this is most likely to have been due to the exchange-rate induced rise in import costs, the slowdown... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Not ready to become hawkish The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly keep interest rates on hold at 1.5% when it meets next Tuesday 1 st August, and we expect it to retain its fairly upbeat view on the outlook for the... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional inflation hits seven-year low Inflation has continued to fall across Latin America – our measure of regional inflation (excluding Argentina and Venezuela) dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since 2010 last month. This is due... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The fourth consecutive weekly drop in commercial crude stocks in the US provides further evidence that OPEC’s output cuts are starting to have an impact on inventory levels. We expect this trend to... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Upward pressure on Egyptian pound likely to wane Egypt’s central bank appears to have been intervening in the foreign exchange market to prevent the pound from strengthening, but we think the forces putting upward pressure on the currency will soon... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun.) The marginal 0.8% m/m rise in new home sales in June provides further evidence that sales volumes are struggling to gain momentum despite the fact that new homes are selling at the fastest pace since... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
