China Economics Update State sector reform continues to underwhelm There has been a fresh push recently on state sector reform but no sign that policymakers are willing to tackle the underlying reasons why state firms perform poorly. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) Mexico’s economy posted another quarter of solid growth in Q2 and, while the activity is likely to cool in the second half of this year, we remain comfortable with our above-consensus forecast for GDP... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What can inventory tell us about state-level house prices? In the absence of state-level data on the months’ supply of unsold homes, a comparison of inventory levels in each state to their long-run average has, in the past, proved a reasonable leading... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Strains in Qatar’s markets ease There is growing evidence that the diplomatic crisis between Qatar and regional powers has (at least temporarily) hurt Qatar’s economy, but there are also signs that tensions in the country’s... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A strong month for local markets Most African currencies and equity markets gained a bit of ground in July. Mozambique – where debt worries deepened – was a rare exception. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jun.) & Flash CPI (Jul.) While June’s unemployment data painted a positive picture of the euro-zone labour market, July’s CPI release confirmed that this strength is putting only modest upward pressure on underlying inflation... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that the consumer slowdown shouldn’t be too severe. But the figures will clearly add to concerns about household debt. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase edged down in June. That said, with unemployment so low, the economy set to fare better in H2 and a rate rise still some way off, approvals should see a gentle... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jun.) Net lending to commercial property by banks and building societies fell by £239m in June. This meant that during the second quarter as a whole, net lending to property came in virtually flat, at minus... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus ASEAN: still searching for purpose at 50 As ASEAN approaches its 50th anniversary, we see little prospect of it transforming itself into the kind of single market and production base which its supporters hope will one day enable it to rival... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is the corporate bond market being stifled? Recent regulatory changes to India’s offshore rupee (so-called “masala”) bond market have led to concerns that its growth will be stifled, but these seem overdone. Over the longer term, the market is... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican peso likely to hold on to recent gains With the likelihood of major disruption to Mexico-US trade as a result of the renegotiation of NAFTA receding, we’re revising up our forecast for the Mexican peso and now expect it to end the year at... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher Canadian dollar no threat to economy The two-month rally in the Canadian dollar, from US$0.73 to US$0.80, doesn’t pose any direct threat to the economy, particularly given the significant decline in the real trade-weighted exchange rate... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed in wait-and-see mode until December The Fed’s latest policy statement suggests that, barring any disruptive debt-ceiling stand-off, the FOMC is ready to announce it will begin reducing the size of its balance sheet at its September... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil and copper lead the way This week, the prices of most commodities benefited from a further weakening of the US dollar and data showing that China’s growth accelerated in Q2. But individual fundamentals also played a role. In... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
