Asia Economics Weekly What does the crisis in Korea mean for the markets? Financial markets in Korea and the rest of Emerging Asia have fallen in response to the latest increase in tensions on the Korean peninsula. However, given the scale of the risks involved, the falls... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria really moving to a unified exchange rate? The Nigerian authorities’ decision to allow commercial banks to quote a floating exchange rate, rather than the less-frequently used official rate has been interpreted by some as a move towards a... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Business bonanza? The surge in business confidence in Australia has made us a little more upbeat on the outlook for business investment. But with households showing some signs of struggling, a bit more investment won’t... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the housing market slowdown weigh on the economy? The recent slowdown in house price growth looks unlikely to develop into outright falls, and as such shouldn’t undermine our relatively upbeat forecasts for consumer spending and investment. 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit conditions to stay loose even as QE is scaled back Monetary conditions remain highly supportive of economic activity, and should continue to be so in the years ahead. While we expect the Fed to begin winding down its balance sheet in Q4 and the ECB to... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc rally to fade towards year-end After falling at the start of the year, robust demand and constrained supply have pushed the price of zinc higher in recent months. The strength in prices is likely to persist over the next couple of... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Rising OPEC production puts market rebalancing at risk Another rise in OPEC’s production in July has not helped the group’s efforts to rebalance the oil market. However, strong demand and slower growth in non-OPEC output should still help to reduce stocks... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The renegotiation of Nafta: a primer Talks to renegotiate Nafta are set to begin on 16th August and look increasingly unlikely to result in major changes that would disrupt Mexico-US trade. Even so, there are still a number of potential... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Have capital values peaked or plateaued? The latest data on both the economy and property markets have done little to change our outlook. One exception is the industrial sector where, on the back of healthy occupier demand, we have upgraded... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output data point to Q2 recovery South Africa’s mining and manufacturing sectors both contributed positively to headline growth last quarter. If we’re right that retail sales picked up, then GDP rebounded faster than most expect in... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jun.) PGM output slumped in June as miners struggled with rising costs and falling metal content. We expect output to drop further in the second half of the year. 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: Rates to remain on hold under new governor Today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% was widely expected. The accompanying statement, which was the first to be published since... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) Demand fell a little slower in July compared to the previous month. But with both newly agreed sales and new sales instructions declining, there are few signs that the stagnation in the housing market... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Falling stocks to support oil prices, even if the dollar rises again A weaker US dollar has given some support to oil prices over the last month. However, the inverse relationship is likely to break down again over the next year as rising US interest rates support the... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Jun.) Today’s deluge of data from the ONS was a bit of a mixed bag. While the manufacturing sector is still underperforming the surveys, and construction output was weaker than expected, net trade looks to... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
