UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) The latest labour market figures showed some signs that the tightening in the labour market may be at long last leading to a recovery in wage growth and provide us with optimism that the real pay... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jun.) June’s LFS made for some positive reading. Wage and employment growth rose and the unemployment rate edged down. But the bigger picture is that real incomes are still under pressure, which should... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone, Italy & Netherlands GDP (Q2, Flash) The second estimate of euro-zone Q2 GDP confirmed that the recovery gathered pace. And with surveys suggesting that the economy continued to expand at a healthy rate at the start of Q3, the outlook... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2017) Today’s strong batch of Q2 GDP data from Central and South Eastern Europe support our above-consensus growth forecasts for this year as a whole. Looking ahead, GDP growth is likely to peak in Q3 in... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2) The stagnation in wage growth at the record low of 1.9% in the second quarter supports our view that the low wage, low inflation climate will mean the RBA won’t raise interest rates next year as the... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2) & Peru Econ. Act. (Jun.) The uptick in Colombian GDP growth in Q2 suggests that the economy is probably over the worst. Even so, the recovery in the second half of the year is likely to be weak and we remain comfortable with... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s slide against the euro likely to be partly reversed In contrast to a number of other forecasters who have suggested that the pound could reach parity with the euro before the end of the year, we think that there are a number of reasons for the pound to... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The strong gain in retail sales in July, together with the upward revisions to May and June data support our forecast that third-quarter GDP growth will be between 2.5% and 3.0% annualised. With jobs... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore’s last hurrah? The price of iron ore has staged an impressive rally since late June, fuelled by a combination of strong growth in China’s steel output and speculative activity. However, with steel demand and... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Jun.) and UK Finance Lending Trends (Q2) House price growth slowed a touch in June, as lending to all types of buyers fell. Looking ahead, with house prices already very high and inflation eroding real earnings, we expect the stagnation in... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s diplomatic crisis: the economic hit so far The early evidence suggests that the diplomatic crisis between Qatar and regional powers dealt a damaging, but apparently brief, blow to Qatar’s economy. 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) Although CPI inflation held steady in July, we still think that it will inch up a bit further before the end of this year, as well as outpace wage growth for a while yet. 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Finnish GDP (Q2) July’s jump in Swedish inflation is partly due to a methodological change in the way that package holiday prices are tracked. Yet even excluding this effect, underlying inflation has picked up and... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q2) The German economy put in a strong performance in the first half of the year. While growth in Q2 was slightly slower than expected, meaning that euro-zone GDP growth might be revised down, surveys... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The new long-term inflation trend History may be turned on its head over the next decade with Australia and New Zealand experiencing lower inflation rates than some of their peers. It follows that their exchange rates may be weaker... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
