Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jul.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by just 1% y/y last month, down from 7.1% y/y a month earlier. 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will accelerating car credit cause a crash? Recent rapid growth in car finance has left the industry looking more vulnerable to a downturn. But this type of lending is a small proportion of total borrowing. And with car finance deals shifting... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Hard work begins for Macron as 100-day honeymoon ends After 100 days in office, French President Emmanuel Macron has already begun to reform the labour market. But a decline in his approval rating and a darker fiscal outlook will make it difficult for... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Jun.) The notable rise in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) over the second quarter as a whole indicates that GDP growth may have accelerated from a disappointingly weak 0.5% q/q in the first quarter to... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Speculators give a boost to industrial metals prices The performance of commodities was mixed this week. Softer Chinese activity and construction data for July did little to cool the rally in industrial metals prices whilst increasing geopolitical risks... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Customs paper overly-optimistic On the face of it, the two further position papers published this week by the Department for Exiting the EU, on Northern Ireland and potential future customs arrangements, point to a fairly soft form... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada will be up against it in NAFTA talks Canada’s trade demands heading into the historic NAFTA renegotiations this week didn’t appear to be overly ambitious, in contrast to the much more aggressive approach adopted by the US. Nevertheless... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Industrial sector drops into overvalued territory Small rises in core government bond yields, along with similar-sized falls in equity dividend yields and limited commercial property yield falls mean that property valuations were mostly unchanged... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The sharp increase in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August takes it back to the highs seen earlier in the year, and is a sign that consumption growth will remain strong over... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The increases in headline and core inflation in July are consistent with the recent improvement in economic growth and raise the probability of a second rate hike by the Bank of Canada before December... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can unemployment keep falling? Despite relatively sluggish GDP growth in the first half of 2017, jobs growth has maintained a solid pace, with the unemployment rate having now fallen below the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC)... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in multifamily starts will support rental growth Developers have responded quickly to signs that rental vacancy rates in multifamily buildings are edging up, with starts over the past three months reaching their lowest level in four years. That... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Falling dollar bolsters case for more rate hikes Even if the dollar doesn’t weaken any further, the 7% depreciation in trade weighted terms already seen this year will help support GDP growth via the resulting boost to exports. But the recent moves... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The pick-up in Chilean GDP growth in Q2 was mainly due to a rebound in mining production following a strike, and there are continued signs of weakness elsewhere in the economy. This adds to the case... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) The raft of strong Polish activity data for July suggests that the economy grew by around 4.5% y/y at the start of the third quarter. That would be even faster than the rapid rate of expansion seen... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
