US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) As expected, the lack of homes for sale weighed on existing home sales in July, pushing them down to their lowest level in almost a year. But those homes which are for sale are selling very quickly... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Qatar crisis reaches an impasse The diplomatic crisis between Qatar and regional powers seems to be in deadlock. Saudi Arabia and its allies revised their demands in July to something that appeared to be more palatable for Doha, but... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to rise in the first half of August, but this was largely the result of another jump in food inflation. As such, it’s unlikely to change the central bank’s view that... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the next Chair shake up Fed policy? Whoever is leading the Fed next February, policy will be driven mostly by economic developments, which we think will prompt the FOMC to raise rates four times in 2018. But a new Chair, along with... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation likely to remain near multi-year lows The big fall in EM inflation is now behind us but it is likely to remain relatively subdued over the coming months. As a result, despite the recent shift in focus towards monetary tightening in... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate to fall further than Fed expects We forecast a 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in August, and suspect that the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, below the current end-year projection of Fed officials. The surveys suggest it could... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug.) Although August’s CBI Distributive Trades survey was far weaker than expected, it still suggests that retail spending growth has maintained a fairly reasonable pace of growth in the third quarter so... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jul.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.6% y/y rise in global steel production in January-July, with output rising in all major producers bar Japan. 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India gold imports (Jul.) The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports started Q3 on a soft note. We think that demand will continue to weaken in the remainder of the year as slower growth in China and a... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q2) The second estimate of Q2 GDP confirmed that the economy maintained a fairly sluggish pace, while the breakdown was disappointing. However, there are still reasons to expect a modest acceleration in... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending & Housebuilding (Jul./Q2) Today’s data offer some tenative evidnce that the recent slowdown in mortage lending may have run its course. And the fact that housing starts held up well in the second quarter suggests that... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How big a threat to EM assets is the scaling back of QE? Although policymakers are unlikely to give very much away, Friday’s Jackson Hole speeches will still be scrutinised for any hints about the timing of ECB “tapering” and Fed balance sheet... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP & Swiss Ind. Prod. (Q2) & Sweden Unemploy’t (Jul.) Norway’s mainland economy recorded another strong expansion in Q2 and forward-looking indicators suggest that the recovery will continue to gain pace. But with inflation set to fall further, we doubt... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Politics grabs headlines as key economies strengthen Attention this month focused on unfolding political dramas in Africa’s key economies. The president of South Africa narrowly saw off another no-confidence vote, Kenya’s president was re-elected in a... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP Breakdown (Q2) The second release of Spanish GDP confirmed that quarterly growth edged up in Q2 due to stronger net trade. While we expect growth to slow in the coming quarters, Spain is still set to be one of the... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
