Europe Economics Weekly Synchronised recovery makes the ECB’s job easier The euro-zone’s economic growth is unusually synchronised across the region. Economies in the core continue to do well, while previously-struggling countries like Italy and Portugal are growing again... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Total EM capital outflows remained pretty stable in July. Net portfolio inflows picked up a bit, though more recent figures suggest that this may have reversed in August. 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is the Taylor Rule telling us? In recent years, policy rates in advanced economies have been set much lower than the levels implied by John Taylor’s original rule, which he formulated in the early 1990s. But once we account for the... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed, not China’s demand, to remain key driver of Treasuries Although China’s holdings of US Treasuries increased by more in June than in any other month in the past six years, we doubt that renewed Chinese buying of Treasuries will keep their yields low in the... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Remittance slowdown a big risk to South Asia A fall in remittances to Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka is a big concern for these economies. If sustained, it could cause growth to weaken and put their currencies under downward pressure. 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank still divided over need for further easing Chile’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.50% for the third consecutive month and, while the accompanying statement gave no hints that rate cuts are being considered, we... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian central bank to ease policy before year end The Central Bank of Egypt brought its tightening cycle to an end last night. With inflation likely to fall sharply over the next six-to-nine months, we expect that the MPC will start to ease monetary... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: New survey quantifies cost of corruption A new survey of corruption in Nigeria’s public service underlines the economic costs of its onerous FX and customs regime. The publication of the commendable frank survey is, in itself, a very... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where’s the cyclical rise in wage growth? If a cyclical rise in wage growth in Australia was underway, it would show up first in the strongest states and sectors. But wage growth hasn’t risen in New South Wales and Victoria. What’s more... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent backwardation should help to reduce oil stocks The recent backwardation in the Brent futures curve will encourage traders to continue to draw down stocks over the next few months, which should support spot prices. 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit conditions set to remain supportive Although the minutes of the Fed’s and ECB’s latest policy meetings are consistent with our view that their unconventional policy support will be scaled back in Q4 and early next year, respectively... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss wage growth to stay low despite unemployment falls The decline in Swiss unemployment in Q2 shows that improving economic conditions are continuing to feed through to the labour market. While we expect unemployment to fall further, we doubt that this... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Bittersweet year for sugar The price of sugar has plummeted by 33% since the start of the year on expectations of a global surplus in the 2017/18 season (October-September). In this Commodities Watch, we discuss recent trends... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Renewed Chinese buying unlikely to keep Treasury yields down 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Withdrawals to support a tighter Madrid office market Demand for office space in Madrid’s CBD has seen prime rents rise by 5% so far this year. And while completions are on the rise, this is being offset by withdrawals. With the market likely to tighten... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.2% m/m rise in industrial production in July, which included a 0.1% m/m decline in manufacturing output, was a little weaker than we had expected. That said, with industrial production rising at... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
