Industrial Metals Update Investors exaggerate move in metals prices Whilst fundamentals have played a role in the most recent rallies in industrial metals, we think that speculative activity has exacerbated the move up in prices. In some cases – notably copper –... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another fall in US crude stocks means that inventories are now about 30 million barrels below last year’s level. Crude stocks are likely to continue to fall over the next few months as demand remains... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) Against expectations of a small rise, new home sales fell by 9.4%m/m in July and saw their first annual decline in 1½ years. But new homes are selling very quickly, which suggests underlying housing... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What should we read into the poor performance of US small-caps? 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Aug.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, point to continued strong growth in the world’s largest advanced economies in August. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA equities continue to struggle Equity markets across most of the emerging world have risen over the past month but those in the Middle East and North Africa have fallen back, continuing their underperformance this year. Stocks in... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery to strengthen over coming year After a torrid couple of years, the economies of Latin America have turned a corner and we expect growth to strengthen over the rest of 2017 and into 2018. Inflation has fallen in most countries and... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Consumer confidence still resilient Consumer confidence in advanced economies has reached its second highest level since 2001. This suggests that consumption growth will hold up well despite subdued real income growth. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update No shortage of tin now! The ongoing surge in ShFE tin stocks was the main story in the last month. In fact, inventories of most ShFE metals have risen in the last four weeks, while stocks of nearly all the LME metals have... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug.) Data to mid-August suggest that inflation in Brazil is starting to bottom out. That being said, it’s likely to remain well below the central bank’s target over the remainder of this year. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will other central banks follow Bank Indonesia? Despite the current subdued rates of inflation across most of Emerging Asia, we don’t expect many of the region’s central banks to copy Bank Indonesia, which yesterday surprised markets by cutting... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland nearing the end of its loosening cycle While the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) left rates unchanged today, our expectation that the króna will appreciate in the coming months means we expect one more rate cut this year, in November. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s strong recovery won’t last Turkey’s economy enjoyed a strong first half of the year, but growth is close to peaking and we think that it will slow in 2018-19, and by more than most expect. What’s more, given the vulnerabilities... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Growing supply will limit any gains in oil prices this year Crude oil prices have risen over the last month as demand has picked up and stocks have tumbled. However, supply, especially from Nigeria, Libya and the US has risen rapidly. This Energy Watch looks... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s small rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that economic growth maintained its pace in Q3. With the recovery healthy, we think that the ECB will proceed with tapering its asset... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) South African inflation eased by more than we’d expected in July, raising the prospect of two 25bp cuts later this year, rather than the single cut we currently expect. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
