Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF & Swedish Economic Tendency Indicators (Aug.) Falls Although surveys of overall economic sentiment in both Switzerland and Sweden fell in August, they still point to a healthy pace of GDP growth in both countries. But with inflation much stronger in... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A tale of two currencies The renminbi’s continued strength against the US dollar this month has forced us to update our forecasts. The Hong Kong dollar, by contrast, has declined to record lows against the US currency and may... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s Otkritie bailout highlights risk from previous credit boom The Russian central bank’s decision to bail out struggling Otkritie bank provides the clearest sign yet of the damaging legacy from the sharp run-up in credit seen up to 2014. That said, the strong... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Hurricane Harvey will have little impact on national economy Hurricane Harvey is a national tragedy, but the impact on the national economy will be minimal. We might see a small uptick in initial jobless claims in early September and a very modest adverse... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread likely to narrow Higher crude exports, falling stocks and the return of refineries shuttered by Hurricane Harvey should all help to boost WTI prices and narrow the Brent-WTI spread over the rest of the year. 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The increase in consumer confidence in August is remarkable given the nuclear threat from North Korea and violent protests in Charlottesville. With labour market conditions still exceptionally tight... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jun.) The 5.8% annual gain in house prices reported by Case-Shiller in June was the highest in three-years, as a shortage of inventory boosted prices even as active housing demand has edged back. Tight... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities shrug off latest Korean tensions Equity markets in Emerging Asia have continued to take the crisis in North Korea in their stride. Although most markets have fallen in response to today’s missile test, the moves are very small. It is... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value growth out of the red Economic indicators have painted a mixed picture for a couple of months. For example, the composite PMI pointed to a slight pick-up in GDP growth at the start of the third quarter, to perhaps 0.4%q/q... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) July’s euro-zone money and credit data are consistent with limited inflationary pressure in the region. Coupled with the renewed rise in the euro to above $1.20, this strengthens the case for the ECB... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Aug.) The easing in mortgage demand seen over the first half of the year is weighing on average house prices. According to Nationwide, prices have risen by just 2.1% over the past year, and have fallen in... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The real pay squeeze continues While consumer spending growth has lost pace in the face of the ongoing real pay squeeze, talk of a collapse in spending is overdone. With inflation set to fall back next year as the impact of the... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch GDP growth to fall short of RBA’s lofty expectations While we agree with the assessment of the financial markets that there is next to no chance of an interest rate hike when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday 5 th September, we... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen’s strong defence of regulation at odds with Trump Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s passionate defence of the post-crisis tightening of financial regulation in her Jackson Hole speech today isn’t going to go down particularly well at the White House. Donald... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Metals on a roll The prices of most commodities – notably industrial metals – rose this week. While fundamentals have been supportive, we think that the most recent rallies in prices have been exaggerated by... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
