Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank on pause despite above-target inflation Economic growth and inflation have been stronger than expected since the Riksbank last met. Despite these developments, policymaker’s concerns about a sharp rise in the krona suggest that the Bank... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: Temporary drags on core inflation to fade soon A combination of a strong currency and the fading impact of a previously-introduced levy on the financial sector has kept a lid on Polish core inflation in recent months. These effects should soon... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2017) Despite a drop in housing investment, the economic growth accelerated to 4.5% q/q annualised in the second quarter, led by exports and household consumption. This showing was much stronger than the 3... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Household finances quite strong, despite low savings rates The aggregate savings rate in advanced economies has fallen sharply over the past two years, but household finances are still in much better shape than they were before the financial crisis. Claims... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) It is tempting to pin the weakness of India’s Q2 GDP data on disruption ahead of the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax. If anything though, this might have been expected to boost spending –... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Subdued new home sales are not holding back starts It is tempting to link the recent softness in new home sales to builders’ apparent reluctance to up the construction of single-family homes. But with new homes selling very quickly, and a rising share... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Don’t underestimate the renminbi The renminbi’s strong gains against the dollar over recent weeks caught many by surprise, and most think they will reverse before long. By contrast, we believe there is a good chance that appreciation... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment data broadly support the case for the ECB to taper its asset purchases next year, but the Bank seems unlikely to announce its plan until its October... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Politics centre stage In a quiet month for economic news across frontier markets, politics has provided a regular stream of headlines. Investors were buoyed by results from Argentina’s primary elections which showed that... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Danish GDP (Q2) The Danish economy notched up yet another decent quarter in Q2, with growth driven by domestic demand. We expect the economy to continue to perform well and have raised our 2017 GDP forecast to 2.5%. 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug.) Despite their concerns about the economic outlook, consumers are still upbeat about their own financial position. As a result, we still think that the slowdown in household spending growth this year... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q2) The private capital expenditure survey for the second quarter suggests that the recent rises in business confidence may soon translate into a bit more investment. A decent rise in business investment... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The annual growth rates of the monetary aggregates remained strong in August, but bank loan growth is still muted. 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s political crisis puts back pension reform The past month has brought some signs that the continuing political crisis in Brazil is starting to weigh on the more ambitious elements of the government’s reform programme. While President Temer’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending holding up well despite real pay squeeze There have been some tentative signs that the tight labour market is translating into stronger pay gains. Even so, earnings growth needs to gather more pace in order to match the rise in CPI inflation... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
