Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) Russian inflation fell to a post-communist low of 3.3% y/y in August and we expect the headline rate to remain below the central bank’s 4% target over our forecast horizon. We had thought the Bank... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production & Chile IMACEC (Jul.) The 0.8% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in July suggests that, after softening in Q2, the economy got off to a decent start in Q3. Meanwhile, economic activity data for Chile add to the... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to rise again Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated further in August, due in large part to a sharp jump in vegetable price inflation. Core price pressures are also building, meaning there is no... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to hit seven-month high in August Consumer price inflation probably rose last month to the highest since January, driven by a further rebound in food price inflation. But taking a step back, inflation is still fairly subdued and we... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Q2 GDP: South Africa rebounds, Nigeria limps out of recession Africa’s two largest economies returned to growth in Q2. But while South African growth rebounded, things in Nigeria remained very weak, causing us to downgrade our 2017 growth forecast to 1.2%. 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Aug.) August’s services PMI suggests that the economy is struggling re-accelerate in the third quarter, after a disappointing first half of the year. However, there are still some good reasons to expect... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) July’s fall in retail sales and the downward revision to August’s Composite PMI suggest that euro-zone GDP growth softened in Q3. But with consumer and business confidence still at very high levels... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.) Following a weak CBI retail sales survey in August, the BRC’s retail sales figures for the same month provide some reassurance that retail spending is continuing to prove resilient to the real pay... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) & Consumer Prices (Aug.) Switzerland’s Q2 GDP release confirmed that the economy expanded only very slowly in the first half of the year. While survey indicators suggest that growth will pick up, subdued inflation will keep... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month to 10.7% y/y means that the interest rate cuts we had expected before the end of the year are looking less likely. That said, we still expect the headline... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA is stuck in neutral The Reserve Bank of Australia has now left interest rates at 1.5% for 13 months and we suspect the combination of subdued GDP growth, low inflation and a growing focus on financial stability will mean... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six key questions and answers about North Korea The escalation of tensions between North Korea and the US has once again raised the issues of how big the threat is and where the risks lie. In this Update we answer six key questions. 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What will Norway’s election mean for the economy? Polls suggest that the Green Party might emerge from Norway’s general election, on 11th September, as “kingmaker”. In that case, confidence in the large oil sector would probably fall. But overall, we... 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals on a tear, for now The prices of most metals rose in the last month. (See Chart.) Robust Chinese economic data boosted investor sentiment towards industrial metals. However, in many cases, we fear that underlying demand... 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily North Korea crisis to have limited impact on safe havens 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trade tensions rise after North Korea’s test President Trump’s suggestion that he would cut off all trade with countries that trade with North Korea is an empty threat when it comes to China. But the risk of some form of trade sanction has... 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
