Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) Despite the recent improvement in global trade activity, merchandise export volumes fell for the second consecutive month in July, hinting at a slower pace of overall economic growth in the third... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Mortgage rates declined in each week of August to reach 4.06%, a 10-month low. But while that spurred an 8.8% m/m rise in refinance applications, mortgage applications for home purchase dropped for... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to a fresh eighteen-year low in August clears the way for another 100bp cut in the benchmark Selic interest rate, to 8.25%, later today. That said, we suspect the... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Italy no longer a risk? Italy’s eurosceptic parties have recently eased up on their most anti-euro rhetoric, but it is far too early to sound the all clear. With the banking sector weak, public debt very high and the economy... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s fiscal progress falls short of IMF goals Egypt’s budget deficit has narrowed sharply over the past year and the high public debt-to-GDP ratio should start to fall back soon. However, the authorities have already missed some of the fiscal... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update South Korea: counting the economic cost of THAAD Chinese retaliation over South Korea’s deployment of the US Terminal High Altitude Defense (THAAD) system has led to a sharp slump in Chinese tourist arrivals in South Korea and a big fall in Korean... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Russia’s Otkritie bailout The breathless commentary surrounding the recent bailout of Otkritie by Russia’s central bank appears to have missed some of the more salient points about Russia’s banking sector. As we explain in... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Jul.) A large gain in services output offset a fall in industrial production in July and suggests that overall the Swedish economy started Q3 on a fairly strong note. While the PMI surveys point to slower... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s whole economy PMIs for the MENA region suggest that recoveries in non-oil sectors in the Gulf have regained some momentum, while Egypt’s economy has picked up on the back of stronger external... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2) The 0.8% q/q rise in GDP in the second quarter overstates the health of the economy as it needs to be taken in context of the weak first quarter. The underlying rate of growth is probably more like 0... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Temer clings on but hopes for pension reform fading Brazil’s government should continue to make headway in reforming a number of areas of the economy, but we think that the prospects of meaningful reform to the country’s pension system is now no more... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Drop in mortgage rates fails to boost activity Falling Treasury yields have pushed down the 30-year mortgage interest rate over the past few weeks. It now sits at its lowest level since early-November. But that drop in interest rates has not led... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Chinese growth pushes up energy commodities The strength of the Chinese economy supported the prices of many energy commodities last month. Imports of oil, coal and LNG remained high and domestic consumption appeared to be strong. However, we... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will the end of summer breathe new life into the markets? 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Still cautious on copper … A combination of investor optimism about future demand, the depreciation of the dollar and disruptions to mine supply have been the key drivers of this year’s rally in the price of copper. But, in our... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) House prices continued to march higher in July according to CoreLogic, with a monthly gain of 0.8% m/m after seasonal adjustment. Tight market conditions are responsible for the steady rise in prices... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
