Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households looking increasingly fragile The slump in real income growth has forced Australian households to reduce their saving rate to a nine-year low in order to continue increasing their spending. This can’t continue indefinitely... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to stick to dovish script despite franc’s fall At its meeting on 14th September, the Swiss National Bank will surely draw some comfort from the depreciation of the franc since it last met in June. But renewed geopolitical tensions and the ECB’s... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What do the hurricanes mean for commodities? Hurricanes routinely, but temporarily, disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, especially at offshore and coastal facilities. But the destruction wrought by Hurricane Harvey, which seems likely... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Refinery shutdowns due to Hurricane Harvey caused a surge in crude oil stocks but a slump in gasoline inventories last week. Stocks are likely to be exceptionally volatile over the next month. 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi confirms taper decision to come in October Despite reiterating the Governing Council’s concern about the strength of the euro exchange rate today, ECB President Draghi indicated that the Bank’s plan to taper asset purchases will be unveiled at... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Risk of more hawkish tone than markets expect The MPC is unlikely to spring any surprises at its meeting on 14th September. However, the economy has performed broadly in line with its expectations. Moreover, the pound has fallen further since the... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation rose to an 18-year high in August, but the latest increase was driven by another jump in food inflation, rather than a rise in broader price pressures. As such, it is unlikely to... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (July) South African mining data for July were weaker than expected but, taken together with the manufacturing figures also released today, it looks like the economy may have strengthened a little at the... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jul.) The weak July data for South Africa’s PGM mine output add to evidence that the market is tightening. We expect output to remain soft in the remainder of the year. 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy still faring well The third release confirmed that euro-zone GDP rose by a healthy 0.6% q/q in Q2, with the region’s largest five economies expanding by between 0.4% and 1.5% on the quarter. On the face of it, the... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Domestic demand in the driving seat Recently-released GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe showed that strengthening consumer spending and investment drove the pick-up in aggregate economic growth to a nine... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Aug.) A rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves suggests that the People’s Bank may have become a net buyer of FX last month for the first time since 2015. This would signal that the central bank’s... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q2) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q2 confirmed that the 0.6% expansion was driven mainly by domestic demand. While GDP growth might have slowed in Q3, it is likely to remain fairly strong by past... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia rejigging reform plans as opposition mounts Reports that the Saudi government is planning to dilute its reform plans may be the first sign that the power and influence of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is starting to wane and that broader... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s forward guidance unchanged despite high inflation While inflation in Sweden is higher than the Riksbank’s 2% target, the Bank’s decision to keep its forward guidance unchanged was not a major shock. The Riksbank is unlikely to shift its guidance... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
