Europe Economics Update Huge costs make Catalan independence unlikely A unilateral declaration of independence after October’s referendum could severely destabilise the economies of Catalonia and Spain. But given this, and the political and legal barriers to secession... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s tourism recovery likely to be slow-going After a dreadful few years, Egypt’s tourism sector has shown tentative signs of a recovery. Government hopes that the sector can quickly return to its pre-2011 heyday are well wide of the mark, but a... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The Westpac measure of consumer confidence edged up in September, but it remains low by historical standards and is consistent with a slowdown in the annual rate of consumption growth from 2.6%... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Hurricanes and housing market activity Despite damaging around half a million homes, Hurricane Katrina had no discernible impact on home sales or housing starts in the South compared to other regions. Accordingly, we are not expecting a... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three things to watch in the Standing Committee reshuffle President Xi is widely expected to consolidate his power over the Party and over policy at the Party Congress next month. Politics is extremely opaque at elite levels in China and we won’t have any... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys suggest weak wage growth won’t last While the recovery in business investment looks set to continue, the latest surveys suggest that firms will soon have to increase the pay they are offering if they want to hire additional workers. 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Lower OPEC production likely to be temporary OPEC production fell last month, but early indicators suggest that it is likely to rebound in September. Unless output falls significantly over the next six months, stocks will remain above their five... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Bank lending rates remain very low and corporate profits have climbed to record highs. Companies are in rude financial health as a result and the number of bankruptcies has dropped to levels not seen... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export slowdown to be very gradual Having slowed in Q2, emerging market (EM) export growth ticked up a little at the start of Q3. However, this is likely to be temporary and EM export growth is set to soften over the remainder of the... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) Indian consumer price inflation accelerated sharply in August, and looks set to rise further over the coming months. As such, there is no scope for further monetary loosening. 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Aug.) After a very weak July, August’s 17%m/m increase in the value of commercial property investment activity is encouraging. Nevertheless, the market still appears to be dependent on large deals and... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will tougher sanctions on North Korea work? The United Nations has agreed a new set of sanctions on North Korea, which while falling short of what was originally demanded by the US, constitute the strongest sanctions ever imposed on the country... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Jul.) and MLAR statistics (Q2) House price inflation held flat in July, while rental growth slowed. And while the lending data suggest that the share of high LTI loans ticked up in Q2, a fresh surge in high LTI lending is unlikely. 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) The pick-up in inflation in August took it close to its eventual peak, although it is likely to provide the more hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with ammunition ahead of... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation was above both the Riksbank’s forecast and its target in August. With the strengthening economy suggesting that inflationary pressure is building, we think that the Riksbank will soon start... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
