US Economics Weekly Rebound in median income a welcome improvement The rapid rebound in real median household income over the past few years, from a 16-year low in 2011 to a record high in 2016, illustrates that it is not just the top five percent who are benefitting... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & IP (Aug.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Sep.) Retail sales and industrial production both came in well below consensus expectations in August, although a lot of that weakness resulted from the disruption caused by Hurricane Harvey toward the end... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How far will the global tightening cycle go? Although we expect the Fed to raise its key policy rate more rapidly than financial markets anticipate next year, our forecast is for it to peak at only 2.25-2.50%, in 2019. In the euro-zone and Japan... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Home valuations are not at dangerous levels A comparison of median new home prices to median household income implies that housing valuations are at levels which could foreshadow a price correction. But we put more faith in valuation measures... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank stays cautious, but more rate cuts loom Russian central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, struck a predictably cautious tone at today’s postmeeting press conference. But the large amount of spare capacity in the economy is likely to keep... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the MPC walk the walk in November? Markets appear to have taken heed of the MPC’s warning this week that interest rates could rise soon. Admittedly, the MPC has talked the talk before and failed to deliver. But this time, there are a... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone moving closer to fiscal union? European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker this week gave his support to the creation of a European Monetary Fund and a euro-zone “budget line”. Eventually, these would result in slightly... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No need to worry about Fed and ECB policy normalisation The next stage of monetary policy normalisation in the developed world – balance sheet reduction by the US Fed, and the shift towards QE tapering in the euro-zone – will not have a major impact on... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investor sentiment could be about to turn Sentiment towards metals remained broadly positive in Q3 as the prospect of capacity cuts in China later in the year supported industrial metals prices whilst heightened geopolitical risks buoyed... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Sri Lanka accelerated slightly last quarter, but the big picture is that growth remains weak by past standards. Looking ahead, with tight fiscal and monetary policy set to continue... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q2) After falling in Q1, Ireland’s GDP only partially rebounded in Q2. That said, the data are notoriously unreliable as a measure of domestic activity. Other more reliable indicators suggest that the... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) & Trade (Jul.) Today’s euro-zone labour costs data reinforce our view that the ECB will set out in October its plans to taper its asset purchases to zero in the first nine months of 2018. Meanwhile, July’s fall in... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets right to believe MPC’s rate hike warning We have long argued that investors have been too sanguine about the prospect of a hike in Bank Rate in the near term. But the hawkish tone of the minutes of the MPC’s September meeting surprised even... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru cuts interest rates, but political turmoil set to rattle markets Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by 25bp last night, to 3.50%, and confirmed our view that rates are unlikely to fall further. What’s more, the surprise decision by Congress to dismiss... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) New lending rose in August, but this masks a decline in underlying credit growth, which has trended down during the past year. A further slowdown appears likely given the government’s current campaign... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug.) Nigerian inflation remained high in August, but we expect that it will ease over the coming months, prompting policymakers to cut interest rates. 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
