Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Election may not dent the kiwi dollar much The outcome of the general election on Saturday may well alter the paths that New Zealand’s economy and the kiwi dollar tread over the next few years. But we doubt that any initial reaction would be... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will new Chinese crude contracts be a game-changer? A new, yuan-denominated crude futures contract should have no impact on oil prices. The development of more futures contracts makes sense given China’s high consumption of most major commodities and... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Should we expect the rise in coal prices to continue? We are revising our coal price forecast up to take account of the recent rise in prices. However, increasing supply, slowing Chinese demand and more efficient energy alternatives are all likely to... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC underestimating inflation risks The decision by the Hungarian MPC to ease monetary conditions further today looks like a policy misstep. Mounting capacity constraints and rapid wage growth mean that we think inflation will turn out... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) Housing starts failed to make any progress in August, dropping by 0.8% m/m. Admittedly, the decline was driven by the volatile multifamily sector. But the building permit data also show that single... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jul.) Manufacturing sales volumes fell by a larger 1.4% m/m in July, the second consecutive monthly decline, confirming that the industrial sector began the third quarter on a soft footing. That said, much... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russian activity data for August suggest that GDP growth may have eased a little in Q3, to around 2% y/y, from 2.5% y/y in Q2. But that would still be a reasonably strong pace of expansion, and it... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Time to worry about rising EM sovereign debt? The fact that aggregate EM sovereign debt has now surpassed $11.7trn has grabbed a few headlines but several factors – notably the increase in EM GDP over the past decade – mean that fiscal risks are... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of strong Polish activity data for August suggests that the economy is on course to grow by an impressive 4.5% y/y in Q3, up from 3.9% y/y in Q2. However, this is likely to mark the peak and... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market set to cool further Some have pointed to a rise in home sales and housing starts growth in August as evidence that China’s property sector is holding up well despite the government’s curbs. But while the property sector... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Unwinding QE won’t reverse its effects The Fed’s reversal of QE is another sign that the world is inching away from ultra-loose monetary policy. But it is planning to proceed slowly and avoid surprises, and no other central bank is likely... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Few signs of a bonus boost to Saudi consumer spending The worst of the downturn in Saudi consumer spending appears to have passed, but there’s no sign yet that the reversal of civil service benefit cuts earlier this year has boosted the recovery. With... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) September’s larger-than-expected rise in German investor sentiment may partly reflect reduced fears about the strength of the euro and suggests that the economy will continue to perform well. Indeed... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will investors continue to shun retail property? In contrast to the office and industrial sectors, retail investment activity has continued to contract. This seems consistent with a soft retail rental outlook which seems unlikely to change quickly... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the fall in Portuguese bond yields be sustained? Portugal’s economic recovery is strengthening, while it has also made progress with recapitalising its banks and strengthening its fiscal position. This is reflected in the decline in government bond... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
