Metals Data Response China and India gold imports (Aug.) The latest trade data for India and China show that imports remained soft in August. We had always believed that demand in India would weaken in Q3 as a result of the implementation of the Goods &... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase posted a marginal rise in August, adding to the impression that the falls seen in the first half of the year have now run their course. But the rise... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch The markets are too hawkish We believe that the financial markets are wrong to price in the possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates twice next year. Admittedly, it is possible that after... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade faring well in H2 The latest CPB data suggest that the recovery in world trade may have lost momentum. However, these data are at odds with a range of other, more upbeat indicators of global trade. And forward-looking... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further upside surprises to come in Brazil A string of better-than-expected activity data from Brazil has pushed consensus GDP forecasts for 2017 and 2018 towards our own, more bullish, view. While some of the tailwinds that have helped the... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Household debt to weigh on economic growth Although the economy grew strongly over the first half of this year, that growth was still overly dependent on the heavily indebted household sector. That arrangement was possible when interest rates... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Markets weather German election, but political risk lingers 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish equities tumble amid Kurdish referendum fears Worries about spillovers from the independence referendum being held today in Iraq’s Kurdish region have led to a sharp drop in Turkey’s stock market over the past week. However, any impact on Turkey... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC fires a warning shot to banks In today’s Statement, the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) fired a warning shot to banks over consumer credit, suggesting that banks would need to increase the amount of capital they... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation picks up from eight-year low Aggregate EM inflation rebounded in August, having fallen to an eight-year low in July. But while we expect fuel and food inflation to edge up over the coming months, easing core price pressures... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Snap election puts tax hike back onto agenda Japan’s ruling coalition should emerge victorious from the upcoming Lower House elections but “Abenomics” has long since run out of momentum and so there is little prospect of meaningful structural... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Sep.) September’s fall in German Ifo business sentiment still leaves it pointing to very strong GDP growth. While Germany looks set for lengthy coalition negotiations following yesterdays’ federal election... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German election: near-term gain, long-term pain? The German election looks set to yield a coalition of Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Green Party. This will mean slightly lower taxes than under the alternative of another grand coalition... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Post-election negotiations may influence economy The financial markets won’t worry too much about how long it takes the various parties to form a government after the weekend’s general election, but the negotiations could influence the outlook for... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Has the Fed spoiled the party? Much of the focus this week was on the outcome of the Fed’s FOMC meeting. In the event, it seems that a clear majority of Fed officials continue to expect another rate hike in 2017. This was a factor... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unfreezing talks, but kicking the can down the road Prime Minister Theresa May’s much-hyped Florence speech has probably inched the UK closer to having made “sufficient progress” on the withdrawal phase of the negotiations. However, there are still... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
