Latin America Economics Update Rally in Lat Am markets cools, but strong Q3 overall Latin America’s financial markets have come under a bit of pressure over the past week or so but the bigger picture is that they have had a strong Q3 overall, comfortably outperforming markets in... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth picks up at the start of Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth picked up in July to its fastest pace since Q1 2014. But there are early signs that growth has since peaked in parts of the emerging world. 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A primer on Russia’s new fiscal rule In this Focus, we answer five key questions on Russia’s recently-approved fiscal rule, and explain what it means for the government’s deficit, debt and oil funds. 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Economic Sentiment (Sep.) The rise in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment in September suggests that the eurozone’s economic recovery will continue at a decent pace. Along with the pick-up in consumer inflation... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP may have expanded by as much as 5% y/y in Q3. However, this probably marks the peak for growth and... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Mortgage rates are heading back over 3% Mortgage rates are set to move back above 3% by the end of 2019. On its own, a rise in mortgage interest rates on that scale is unlikely to trigger another downturn in house prices. But it will act as... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed normalisation not a game changer The US Fed’s decision to begin scaling back its balance sheet nearly eight years after it started QE is a major milestone, but global financial conditions should remain highly accommodative for a long... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A surge in exports and demand from refineries last week helped to draw down crude stocks. We expect these trends to continue which should help to narrow the Brent-WTI spread over the next few weeks. 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) Headline durable goods orders rebounded partially in August, but the bigger news was the strong increases in non-defence capital goods orders and shipments. The latter suggests that business equipment... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC set to hike in November The Czech MPC’s decision to keep rates on hold today was a very close call and we think that an interest rate hike at the next MPC meeting on 2nd November is highly likely. Following that, our central... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf markets get no boost from higher oil prices Financial markets in the Gulf economies have performed poorly in the past few weeks despite the sharp rise in oil prices. Equity markets have actually fallen back and, in some countries, dollar bond... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should we be more optimistic on German retail? Already upbeat German consumers are likely to benefit from tax cuts ahead. But with prime rental growth seemingly held back by structural factors, total returns are likely to be poor over the 2018-21... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack A Multispeed Recovery GDP figures released this month showed that the economic fortunes of Africa’s largest economies diverged in Q2. South Africa’s economy rebounded after a brief recession at the turn of the year. While... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Recovery in Latin America steps up a gear The past month has brought further evidence that the recovery in Latin America is picking up pace. Our GDP Tracker suggests that regional growth is now running at a three-year high of 3% y/y. The... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey While we wouldn’t place too much weight on the markedly-strong tone of September’s CBI Distributive Trades survey, it nonetheless supports our view that consumer spending growth probably picked up a... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
