Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Monetary policy outlook clouded by political uncertainty We no longer expect the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to cut interest rates again this year. The Government’s collapse and prospect of a left-wing coalition taking power have increased the chance of a... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The end of the Saudi driving ban & the economic impact The Saudi government’s decision to lift the ban that prohibits women from driving in the Kingdom is clearly a positive step for women’s rights and could potentially have a significant economic impact... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Forecasts on track In contrast with the mixed signals on the economy, the post-referendum recovery in property markets has gathered momentum of late. Indeed, barring a sharp turnaround over the closing stages of 2017... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to raise interest rates The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today resisted pressure from the government to loosen monetary policy, and instead left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. With headwinds to the economy mounting and... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone money and lending growth remained fairly strong in August, though the data suggest that economic growth is unlikely to gather much more pace. Meanwhile, recent developments in Italy’s and... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will higher interest rates hit consumer confidence? The prospect of the first rise in interest rates in a decade has raised concerns about the impact on the already beleaguered consumer. Indeed, there is clearly a risk that the sheer shock of the first... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Survey (Sep.) In September a sharp rise in manufacturing sentiment drove the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator to its highest since 2011. With the growth outlook strong and inflation expectations rebounding, we... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Jul.) Following the bounce back in GDP growth last quarter, the decline in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) in July suggests that the economy lost some momentum at the start of the third quarter. That... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Oil price jump fails to lift markets in oil exporters The jump in oil prices, from $51pb at the start of September to around $59pb at the time of writing, should provide a fillip to the large frontier oil economies, such as Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The small drop in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in September appears to be entirely due to the impact from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and is likely to be reversed in the coming... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (Jul./Aug.) Despite a relatively healthy supply of new homes for sale, sales surprised on the downside in August, falling by 3.4% m/m. But even with home sales falling, overall conditions in the housing market... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Recent falls in EM currencies unlikely to be the start of a trend 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, but cuts are still on the way Nigerian policymakers kept rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement made it clear that easing is on the way. We expect that the first cut will come in Q1 2018. 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Wages, not the forint, the biggest risk facing Hungary’s MPC The move by Hungary’s MPC to loosen monetary policy last week appears to have been aimed at weakening the forint, which looks to us like a step in the wrong direction. The key threat to inflation and... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to make of the recent jump in oil prices The latest rise in oil prices reflects concerns about Kurdish supply and hopes for another extension of OPEC’s output cuts, neither of which may have a lasting influence on prices. But the oil market... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Drop in CA deficits take EMs out the firing line There are several reasons why the gradual tightening of monetary policy in developed markets is unlikely to cause major problems for EMs, but one of the most important is that current account deficits... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
