Commodities Update What can the Baltic Dry Index tell us? The recovery in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) since early 2016 corroborates data showing a pick-up in global growth and the strength of commodity prices, notably the metals. However, we think that the... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Aug.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.9% y/y increase in global steel production in January-August, with output rising in all the major producers except Japan. That said, global output was... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will risky assets continue to shrug off the Fed? Risky asset markets took the Fed’s unexpectedly-hawkish tone on Wednesday in their stride. We think that they will remain resilient over the next year and a half or so, even though we forecast that... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Lower interest rates underpin higher asset valuations US FOMC participants’ median estimate of the level of the federal funds rate in the “longer run” has fallen by 25bp, to a new low of 2.75%. This compares to a median estimate of 4.25% in early 2012... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Lower longer-run interest rates underpin higher asset valuations 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African loosening cycle put on hold The South African Reserve Bank has paused its loosening cycle, but we expect that it will cut rates at its November meeting, by which time inflation will have eased further. 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How could tighter ECB policy affect property yields? Tighter monetary policy in the UK, US and euro-zone in the next couple of years will undoubtedly cause risk-free rates to rise. However, given that property’s yield spread against risk-free rates is... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep.) The slight increase in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.6% y/y from 2.5% y/y in August, is the first real sign that the headline rate may have now bottomed out, and reinforces... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates to stay on hold in Taiwan With economic growth fairly strong and inflationary pressures subdued, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.375%. The dovish tone of the Bank’s accompanying... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update S&P playing catch-up with downgrade S&P is the third of the three major ratings agencies to downgrade China and today’s decision tells us nothing we didn’t already know. There has actually been some progress recently in tackling credit... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update BSP unlikely to change policy stance soon Despite the recent rebound in inflation, it was no surprise that the Philippines central bank (BSP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. There was nothing in its statement to suggest BSP is... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Good news for the Chancellor in the lead-up to the Budget August’s public finances figures will come as welcome news to the Chancellor in the lead-up to the Budget on 22nd November and further increases the scope to ease back on austerity a touch. • 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate hikes in Norway a very long way off The Norges Bank today raised its interest rate forecast, implying that it will begin tightening monetary policy mid-way through 2019. By contrast, we think that it will wait until 2020. 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Minutes show doves still rule the Riksbank roost Today’s Riksbank minutes suggest that at least two of the six Board members would support an extension of the Riksbank’s QE programme beyond the current December end date. But given our forecast for... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Should we start worrying about rising property yields? The jump in interest rate expectations and bond yields over the past week is consistent with our view that the MPC is poised to raise Bank Rate at its November meeting. And while higher rates will... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: worst of the blockade hit may now have passed The latest evidence suggests that the hit to Qatar’s economy from the diplomatic crisis with regional powers is starting to fade. Even so, a quick diplomatic solution to the crisis appears... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
