Australia & New Zealand Data Response ABS House Prices (Q2) Even though house price inflation on the ABS measure held steady at 10.2% in the second quarter, there are some signs beneath the surface that prices have started to lose momentum. Other forward... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) In seasonally-adjusted terms, capital outflows fell to a three-year low last month as Chinese firms and individuals reduced their foreign currency deposits at the fastest pace in half a year. Looking... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation showing signs of resurgence The V-shaped rebound in the three-month annualised rate confirms the slump in core CPI inflation that began in the spring was mostly due to transitory factors, which are now fading. The annual core... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stock data at odds with prices There has been a dramatic drawdown of Shanghai lead inventories in the last month and a surge in LME copper stocks in the last week. Otherwise, total stock movements have been relatively subdued, with... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan MPC holds rates again, but will ease in 2018 The Kenyan MPC kept rates unchanged today, but we expect that they will loosen policy next year as inflation falls towards the middle of the target range. 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s draft 2018 budget The sizeable fiscal squeeze unveiled in Argentina’s draft 2018 budget is a step in the right direction, but it would only reverse this year’s loosening of fiscal policy ahead of October’s legislative... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the overheating risk in Hungary? There are no clear signs yet that Hungary’s economy is overheating but, by the same token, growing signs that the economy is hitting capacity constraints sit uncomfortably with the MPC’s continued... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB taper affect corporate bond yields? We think that corporate bond yields will rise only gradually as the ECB tapers its asset purchases next year. After all, the economy looks set to continue performing well. And the Bank is likely to... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Snap elections could leave PM Abe with last laugh With the opposition in disarray and support for the ruling coalition rebounding, the government may well retain its two-thirds majority in the Lower House if it called a snap election. The chances of... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Profit-taking evident in metals There were some big gains this week in some of the agricultural commodities, primarily as a result of supply concerns. In contrast, weak Chinese August activity and spending data weighed on the prices... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Some new market forecasts We have revised some of our key market forecasts for currencies, bonds and equities, partly because we no longer expect the FOMC to raise its target range for the federal funds rate again this year. 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack How vulnerable are EM corporate bonds? Emerging market (EM) corporate bond spreads are around their lowest since the onset of the global financial crisis. We think that they will remain low for the next year and a half or so – but expect... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly At least income inequality isn’t getting worse The latest Census data show that average growth in the median total income of households was disappointing over 2005 to 2015 which might, we suspect, prompt renewed speculation of worsening income... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: All eyes on PM’s Florence speech The fourth round of negotiations have been delayed by a week until after Theresa May’s forthcoming speech in Florence. Both negotiating teams will be hoping that the Prime Minister endorses a... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
