Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Q2 GDP data a mixed bag, but timelier data look strong The Q2 GDP data for the Nordic and Swiss economies were a mixed bag, but more timely indicators point to a strong second half of the year. 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Markets bracing for another interest rate hike The Bank of Canada’s bold call to raise interest rates again so soon after its well-telegraphed July hike caught some investors completely by surprise, resulting in a sharp increase in rate... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Higher inflation remains elusive Although economic activity has gathered pace this year, and many advanced economies are approaching full employment, there is no evidence of a pick-up in wage inflation. Average earnings growth has... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report As we expected crude oil production rebounded last week but many refineries remained shut, swelling crude stocks and pulling down gasoline inventories. Next week’s report should show a significant... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would be a dovish ECB taper? Given upward pressure on the single currency, we now see the ECB tapering its asset purchases over nine months instead of six next year. We still expect it to announce the full programme in advance... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More bad news for grains & soybeans prices The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s latest set of estimates painted a broadly bearish picture for grains – notably corn – and soybeans. While the price of wheat increased following the release... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM recovery continues at the start of Q3 The latest activity data from EMs suggest that the economic recovery continued at the start of Q3. Consumer spending has continued to pick up across most regions, while both industrial production and... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) In response to the slump in home sales that began four months ago, the annual rate of house price inflation fell to 13.1% in August, from 14.2%. That slump points to sharply lower house price... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Some revisions to our key market forecasts We have revised some of our key market forecasts for currencies, bonds and equities, partly because we no longer expect the FOMC to raise its target range for the federal funds rate again this year. 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed now likely to stand pat until next year A plethora of recent developments mean that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates again until next year now, although we do expect it to announce the start of its balance sheet normalisation at... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth slips at start of Q3 July activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy weakened at the start of Q3. But GDP still grew by about 1.5% q/q saar at the start of Q3, supporting our above-consensus growth forecasts. 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC open to extending output deal OPEC has recently been hinting that it may prolong its production cuts. However, some members are planning to increase output next year and compliance with the current agreement will probably have to... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) The latest labour market figures continued the recent pattern of employment growing strongly and the unemployment rate falling further, but wage growth failing to respond. 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) & Employment (Q2) Despite July’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production, growth in the sector will probably slow in Q3. But with more timely survey indicators still strong, any slowdown should be modest. 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jul.) Today’s Labour Force Survey data painted a healthy picture for occupier markets. July’s data posted the largest three-month increase in employment since December 2015, as well as another fall in the... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
