Africa Economics Update Kenya: Not out of the woods yet Most commentators hailed the Kenyan Supreme Court’s decision to annul the result of last month’s presidential election as a key win for the country’s democracy. This is, as yet, premature. The real... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Has economic growth passed its peak in New Zealand? While GDP growth should hold up fairly well over the next year, we expect there will be a sharper slowdown than the RBNZ and most analysts are anticipating in 2019 as the impacts of a cooling housing... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC hoping for exchange rate uncertainty, not weakness We don’t believe that officials at the People’s Bank are so acutely sensitive to the level of the exchange rate that they are now worried about renminbi strength – it has barely moved in trade... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A guide to Venezuela’s upcoming debt repayments US financial sanctions on Venezuela have caused markets to price in a higher probability of default before year-end. While our sense is that the government will be able to stump up enough oil revenues... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values still climbing this year and next The prospects for European prime property are still positive for the remainder of 2017 and 2018. However, we think that the gradual creep upwards of government bond yields will eventually cause a re... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook ECB draws nearer to turning off the stimulus tap European occupier markets have continued to benefit from the strengthening economic environment. Low risk-free rates still provide some limited scope for prime yields to fall. But as government bond... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) Mexico’s industrial sector got off to a weak start in Q3, with output contracting by 1.0% m/m in July. And there is a good chance that it will act as a drag on GDP growth over the quarter as whole... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What’s going on with West End office rents? On past form, the latest agency data suggest that IPD office rental values are on the cusp of a fall of at least 10%. However, such an outcome is best treated as a downside risk as the fall in prime... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Egyptian inflation last month, to 31.9% y/y, confirms that it has now passed its peak. We expect it to fall sharply towards the end of the year which should bring interest rate cuts on to... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2) & Czech CPI (August) Turkey’s economy had a strong Q2 and growth is set to be even quicker in Q3. But that’s likely to mark the peak in the cycle and we think the economy will slow more abruptly than most expect in 2018... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Aug.) In August, inflation in Norway fell further below the Norges Bank’s target. While inflation should stop falling by the end of the year, it will rebound only slowly. So interest rate hikes are a very... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Is this the end of the price rally in metals? The impact of hurricanes in the US provided direction for many commodities this week. The price of crude oil started to recover as refineries in Texas restarted, but some agriculturals made gains on... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Storm clouds gathering in Canada too The housing investment boom may have breathed its last gasp last quarter. With existing home sales floundering and average sale prices dropping, tighter mortgage financing rules and ill-timed interest... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: EU concerned by UK stance on N. Ireland A position paper on the EU’s approach to Northern Ireland and accompanying statements by Michel Barnier on Thursday highlighted that the EU and the UK will struggle to agree on how to deal with trade... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How is Q3 shaping up? After a disappointing first half of the year, the early evidence suggests that the UK economy has failed to re-accelerate much in the third quarter. But talk of the economy losing more momentum looks... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
