UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Aug.) While annual house price inflation picked up touch in August, the big picture is one of stagnation. Looking ahead, with borrower leverage already high and real wages grinding lower, there is little... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Jul.) July’s weak German industrial production and French trade data add to signs that euro-zone GDP growth will slow in Q3. But we expect the slowdown to be modest, so while the ECB is unlikely to announce... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian central bank nearing end of easing cycle The Brazilian central bank cut its benchmark Selic interest rate by 100bp, to 8.25%, last night and confirmed our view that the end of the easing cycle is not far off. As things stand, our forecast is... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia rates set to stay on hold this year and next With growth strong and inflation moderating, it came as no surprise that Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. In its statement, BNM stressed the positive outlook... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Jul.) The stagnation in retail sales and the fall in the international trade surplus in July suggest that GDP growth in the third quarter will be weaker than the second-quarter’s 0.8%. With households’... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada taking a big gamble on rate hikes The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates for a second consecutive time is a clear sign that policymakers are supremely confident in the economy. Considering the strong pace of recent GDP... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Harvey & Irma potential costs begin to mount Estimates of the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey have been rising in recent days, but we still expect the short-term negative impact on activity and employment to be modest. Unfortunately, it now... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy resilient despite geopolitical tensions The recent escalation of tensions between the US and North Korea has caused the Vix “fear gauge” to reach its highest level this year, but it remains a long way below the levels it reached during many... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC remains dovish, but tightening likely next year The tone of the press statement and conference that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland remained dovish. However, there is a hawkish minority on the Council and, as core inflation picks up in the... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor How long will EM credit spreads remain so low? Emerging market (EM) credit spreads ticked down again over the past month and generally appear low by the standards of the past. We think that they will pick up only a little this year and next, but... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Hurricane Harvey to depress US oil demand Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are likely to have a larger negative impact on US oil demand than on oil production over the next few months, which could delay market rebalancing. 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy struggling to pick up much pace in Q3 The economy looks unlikely to post a significant pick-up in growth in the third quarter. Indeed, the average level of the Markit/CIPS all-sector PMI in July and August is consistent, on the basis of... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Pessimism about sterling’s prospects overdone In contrast to some forecasters who have suggested that the pound could reach parity with the euro before the end of the year, we expect sterling to reverse some of its recent losses against the euro... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will car sales stay stuck in reverse? New car registrations fell again in August, providing a worrying sign that the sector will be a major drag on overall consumer spending growth in the quarters ahead. 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (Jul.) & ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug.) The trade deficit widened trivially to $43.7bn in July, from $43.5bn, but net external trade is still on course to provide a modest positive contribution of around 0.3% points to third-quarter GDP... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
