Europe Economics Weekly French outlook bright despite reform worries French consumers are, rather unusually, very upbeat at the moment, with measures of consumer confidence at or close to multi-year highs. In particular, they are much less worried about being made... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Trump and China boost metals prices Hurricane Harvey severly disrupted oil production, refining and trade in the US at the end of August. The US government was even forced to release crude supplies from its strategic reserve. Meanwhile... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug.) In August, IPF Consensus forecasts for total returns in 2017 were revised up for the fourth consecutive quarter, to stand at 6.7%. But the figures for 2018 and 2019 were left more or less unchanged... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nordic and Swiss bond yields decline Bond yields in most Nordic and Swiss markets fell in August, matching global trends. Currencies recorded mixed performances against the euro, with the Swiss franc depreciating while the Swedish krona... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to strong industrial output in August While stronger manufacturing PMI readings imply an acceleration in industrial activity in August, we don’t think that the upturn will be sustained given the increasing headwinds from policy tightening... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI. (Aug.) The broad-based strength of August’s manufacturing PMI survey adds weight to our view that the sector will put the disappointing first half to the year behind it, and will probably provide a decent... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How vulnerable are EM assets to tighter DM monetary policy? In our view, EM assets are likely to weather the gradual tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies this year and next. But the effects of this tightening may start to bite further ahead. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained extremely weak last month. And while the survey has tended to overstate downturns in recent years, it may suggest that the economy softened in Q3. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP Breakdown (Q2) & Greek GDP (Q2) Italy’s economy is improving steadily, but is likely to continue growing more slowly than the euro-zone as a whole. This leaves it vulnerable to losses of confidence, perhaps sparked by concerns about... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The rebound in India’s manufacturing PMI in August should soothe some of the concerns raised by yesterday’s weak GDP data and also suggests that the disruption caused by the introduction of the Goods... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) & Finnish GDP (Q2) August’s manufacturing PMIs pointed to continued recoveries in Switzerland and Norway, but the Swedish index weakened significantly. That said, with other indicators suggesting that the Swedish... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe suggest that economic growth has remained robust in Q3. That said, we think that the third quarter will mark a peak for growth across the region. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: No need to worry about the weak peso Subdued inflation and a relatively low level of foreign currency debt mean the weakness of the Philippine peso, which has recently been hitting multi-year lows against the US dollar, is not a major... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What’s going on with mining? One recent data release showed that mining investment in Australia is still plunging while another suggested it has started to rebound. Both are technically right, as it all depends on how you measure... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Euro’s rise to keep taper plans on the back burner The appreciation of the single currency since the ECB’s last meeting has strengthened the case to delay the formal announcement of asset purchase tapering until October. But with growth strong and... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold to benefit from high geopolitical risks Elevated geopolitical risks and expectations that the Fed will only raise interest rates slightly this year and next have buoyed the price of gold. While we have revised up our end-2017 forecast to... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
