Canada Economics Update Government should tread carefully on tax policy The current proposals to raise taxes on small business owners will raise little additional revenue for the Federal government and, at a time when the US is considering slashing business tax rates... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are markets right to shrug off political events in Catalonia? 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the tide turning for investor sentiment? Despite some reports of open-ended funds increasing their cash reserves, the data for net flows into such funds offer little support for the idea that investor sentiment towards commercial property... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus to provide short-term boost to growth After another soft start to the year, US economic growth is now benefitting from an upturn in global activity and a loosening of financial conditions. The weaker dollar should boost export growth... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of our forecasts Growth in Emerging Europe has generally surprised on the upside in recent quarters, which is consistent with the above-consensus forecasts we made at the start of this year. We expect further positive... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No clear signal from China’s PMIs China’s official and unofficial PMIs diverged in September, but both suggested that smaller, private sector manufacturers are struggling. The authorities appear aware of the sector’s woes as the cut... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn deepens, blockade hits Qatar’s economy Official GDP data show that the contraction in Saudi Arabia’s economy worsened in Q2 and our GDP Tracker suggests that downturn deepened further at the start of Q3. We expect a recovery to get... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.) August’s labour market data won’t deter the ECB from announcing later this month that it will taper its asset purchases next year. But the only gradual recovery in the labour market suggests that the... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Despite the weaker PMI survey in September, the manufacturing sector still looks likely to have put in a solid performance over the third quarter as a whole. 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalonia: What next? Despite the “yes” vote in yesterday’s independence referendum in Catalonia, there appears to be little chance that the region will secede from Spain in the coming months. We think the most likely... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) September’s Swiss and Swedish manufacturing PMIs both rose to high levels. But while fairly strong growth is unlikely to push inflation up in Switzerland, price pressures are mounting in Sweden. 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global QE to remain positive for a while yet Although the Fed is starting to shrink its balance sheet and the ECB is likely to taper its asset purchases next year, the monetary base in the world as a whole should continue expanding at least... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe painted a positive picture. The surveys suggest that economic growth accelerated further in Q3 in Central Europe and remained robust in Russia. Even... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Ample supply weighs on agriculturals There were some sharp moves in metals prices this week, as investors took positions ahead of the weeklong holiday in China. Meanwhile, oil prices edged higher on speculation that OPEC will extend its... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers’ finances more robust The latest Quarterly National Accounts painted households’ finances in a much better light, supporting our view that consumers will continue to ride out the real pay squeeze fairly well. 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Government collapse triggers Icelandic market sell-off Bond yields across the Nordic and Swiss economies rose in September, largely in line with global trends as investors brought forward their expectations for monetary policy normalisation by the US Fed... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
