Canada Economics Weekly Tougher mortgage rules will only make matters worse Federal banking regulators decision to forge ahead with recent proposals to tighten mortgage rules further will only make matters much worse for the already faltering housing market. Needless to say... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Should the oil market worry about sanctions on Iran? If President Trump refuses to waive the sanctions on Iran’s oil exports then we would expect oil prices to rise. However, it is not clear that Congress would vote to re-impose sanctions on the country... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are the skyrocketing ISM surveys too good to be true? The surge in the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices in September leaves them consistent with annual GDP growth of nearly 4%, but there are some doubts over whether activity really is that... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Mid-Autumn Festival distortions drag down inflation We expect consumer price inflation to have fallen in September as a shift in the timing of Mid-Autumn Festival probably caused a drop in food price inflation last month. This will reverse in October... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What next for the Iran nuclear accord? The spotlight has turned back on to Iran’s nuclear deal in recent days with President Trump expected to refuse to certify that Iran is still compliant with the accord. There remains a lot of... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The 33,000 decline in non-farm payrolls in September was worse than the consensus forecast at 90,000 or our own 100,000 estimate but, frankly, all of us were waving a finger in the air and guessing... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Catalan political crisis still far from an economic one The Catalan Government could achieve independence without Spain’s consent if a critical mass of people and firms were on board. This would be negative for the rest of Spain. Spain’s government’s debt... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Renewed leadership bid could hamper negotiations The prospect of a renewed Conservative Party leadership bid could have a de-stabilising effect on negotiations next week and, if it does happen, could have a material impact on the sort of Brexit that... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) Although headline employment rose by a moderate 10,000 in September, the 112,000 rebound in full-time employment is a positive sign for income and consumption growth. In addition, the Bank of Canada... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strong returns in prospect for Moscow offices The Moscow office market is showing signs of greater balance. With the potential for rental growth, and further falls in prime yields, several years of double-digit total returns could be on the cards... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s data confirm that the sharp drop in inflation in Brazil is bottoming out. This supports the view that Copom is likely to slow the pace of easing at this month’s policy meeting. 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the economy losing momentum? This week’s PMI surveys were undeniably disappointing and have led some to question whether this is the start of a more pronounced slowdown. However, there are two reasons why we think that concerns... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) House price growth accelerated on the Halifax index. But this is at odds with the softer picture reported by the other main indices. Regardless, with real wages being eroded, house prices already so... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What would Yurinomics mean for Japan? Yuriko Koike’s Party of Hope has pledged to rely less on loose fiscal and monetary policy if it wins the upcoming election. But in practice its proposals, which include delaying the sales tax hike... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore: MAS in no rush to tighten Given the subdued outlook for inflation, we think the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will leave its policy settings unchanged not just at next week’s meeting, but throughout 2018 as well. In... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
