Canada Economics Focus Core inflation likely to remain below 2% target Although some measures have edged higher in recent months, we doubt that core inflation will return to the 2% inflation target anytime soon. Even if the output gap closes by the end of this year, the... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How will the world cope with tighter monetary policy? We expect global growth to slow only modestly as the era of easy money starts drawing to a close. The monetary tightening is set to be gradual, limited and staggered, with some countries only starting... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Oil market showing more signs of tightening OPEC production rose last month due to increases in Libya and Nigeria. However, estimates of slower non-OPEC output growth and stronger demand offer some hope for rebalancing. 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: mining downturn should soon bottom out We estimate that a fall in mining output shaved about 0.4%-pts off annual GDP growth in Mexico in Q3. Mining output should stabilise over the coming year, but we doubt that reforms to the sector will... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Growth set to slow, interest rates to remain low The poor prospects for domestic demand across large parts of Emerging Asia mean that regional growth is likely to slow over the next couple of years. However, provided exports continue to grow at a... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: improved current account reflects weak growth The marked improvement in Saudi Arabia’s current account position over the past year has eased fears that the riyal will be devalued. However, a large chunk of the improvement has been due to weaker... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s external vulnerabilities back under the microscope Turkey’s recent diplomatic spat with the US – and the subsequent sell-off in financial markets – has refocussed attention on the economy’s external vulnerabilities. We have two areas of concern: the... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Sep.) Investment activity in September fell compared to August. However, not only did the £3.7bn total comfortably surpass the average figure for September in the previous 14 years, but it also brought the... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalan situation could still escalate further While Catalonia’s president avoided inflaming tensions with Madrid further in his speech yesterday, as long as the situation drags on there is likely to be some hit to business sentiment. Ultimately... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The Westpac measure of consumer confidence leapt to its highest level in a year in October, which was a welcome sight given the recent run of weak data on household spending. That said, we remain... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three quick points on the IMF’s latest projections The tone of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, published today, was upbeat and in line with our view that the outlook for the global economy is reasonably bright. But the Fund’s projections... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Pullback in EM currencies probably not a sign of things to come 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update India’s gold demand to remain soft The Indian government’s decision to reverse an order that brought the gem & jewellery sector under anti-money laundering legislation is certainly good news for the gold industry. That said, demand is... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s property bubble deflates The deflation of Brazil’s property bubble appears in most regions to be happening via a stagnation in (nominal) prices, thus allowing prices and incomes in the rest of the economy catch up. This has... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Lack of affordable homes for sale hits first-time buyers House price growth is at a three-year high but, given how tight market conditions are, experience suggests they should be rising even faster. Cautious home appraisals and tight credit conditions are... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Aug.) The deluge of official data for August provided some reassurances that the economy has not lost pace in the third quarter and suggested that growth could even nudge up a touch. However, it also showed... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
