Global Economics Update What are the prospects for fiscal policy? Fiscal policy in advanced economies is likely to be slightly accommodative next year, providing a benign backdrop for the world as monetary support is withdrawn. But any direct benefits will be modest... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NAFTA withdrawal no longer out of the question The demise of the NAFTA agreement would have a modest negative impact on the US economy. But if a unilateral withdrawal by the Trump administration signalled the beginning of a broader lurch toward... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The 0.3% m/m rebound in industrial production in September confirms that the disruption caused by Hurricane Harvey in late August, which largely explains the 0.7% m/m fall in that month, is now being... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Total EM capital outflows slowed to a trickle in September. Portfolio inflows also seem to be slowing, but they remain very high by the standard of recent years. 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Aug.) The official house price index continues to report house price growth that is rather stronger than the other main indices. But the further slowdown in London house price inflation, which led the... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Earnings repatriation unlikely to boost the economy The Republicans’ tax plans could result in a sizable chunk of the $2.6tn of earnings held overseas by US firms being repatriated. However, although the tax revenues from such a move could help to... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks fall, but cannot explain the surge in prices Total exchange stocks of nearly all the metals edged lower over the last month, which will have been a factor supporting prices. That said, the recent stock drawdowns have been relatively small. What... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.) October’s rise in German ZEW investor sentiment suggests that neither the stronger euro nor ECB QE tapering are expected to have significant adverse implications for the German economy. 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices The rise in CPI inflation in September took it close to its eventual peak and supports our view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will press ahead and raise interest rates in November. 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Investor surveys paint mixed picture for property The latest poll from Thomson Reuters suggests that investor demand for UK property could be on the brink of a drop. Yet, a more comprehensive survey by Hodes Weill/Cornell University suggests that the... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi inflation stayed in negative territory in September, but with fresh subsidy cuts and the introduction of a new value-added tax on the horizon, we expect it to jump to 4.0-4.5% in the coming... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Deficit within target, but finances weak Nigeria’s budget deficit is, perhaps surprisingly, smaller than the government had expected. But this comes at a significant economic cost. And even the country’s small shortfall may prove hard to... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3) The modest rise in headline and underlying price pressures in the third quarter doesn’t dramatically alter the outlook for interest rates, but at the margin it indicates that rates may rise a little... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Positive business sentiment points to interest rate hike The latest Business Outlook Survey shows that, despite concerns about a slowdown in housing and trade policy uncertainty, businesses expect above-potential economic growth ahead. This positive... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
