US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) Existing home sales posted a modest month-on-month gain in September, ending a run of three consecutive monthly falls. But that rise would need to be extended for several months before it altered the... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update “Sufficient progress” by December? It was little surprise that the leaders of the EU27 this week decided that “sufficient progress” on the withdrawal issues has not yet been achieved. But there were encouraging signs that this point... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Race to be next Fed Chair enters closing stages The markets are right to remain relatively sanguine over the upcoming decision on who will be the next Fed Chair, since the Fed’s low rate regime will probably continue with President Donald Trump... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will the party in the financial markets remain in full swing? 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets mispricing interest rate moves Market expectations towards South African interest rates have shifted markedly in recent weeks. While a rate cut next month is no-longer likely, we think that the markets have moved too far, and are... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) The headline inflation rate rose to 1.6% in September, from 1.4%, but the increase was partly due to higher energy prices, which have already begun to fall back. Although some of the core inflation... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How does the impact of e-commerce vary in Europe? E-commerce is taking an increasing share of total retail sales across Europe, but its reach and impact in the short-to-medium-term will vary by country and across different retailer types. 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC still on track for a November hike While it is far from a done deal, there was nothing in the comments made by MPC members this week, or the latest economic data releases, to make us alter our view that the MPC will press ahead and... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish and Italian “separatists” not yet an economic worry Madrid’s plan to impose direct rule in Catalonia is likely to be met by protests, which would cause shortterm disruption. The risk of a more serious economic deterioration is growing, but as things... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Politics drive latest moves in EM currencies In an otherwise quiet month for EM markets, the sharp falls in the Mexican peso and Turkish lira have stood out. In each case, the triggers have been different – the 7% fall in the peso against the... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Sep.) The latest aluminium output data for September, released today, point to a tighter market. However, ShFE stocks have continued to rise indicating that the market is amply supplied for now. We expect... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our estimates show that China saw a net inflow of capital last month, albeit a very small one, for the first time since 2014. Foreign investors acquired Chinese financial assets at the fastest pace in... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional growth slows further The raft of GDP data released over the past month showed that growth across the Middle East & North Africa continued to slow in Q2. Our weighted-average measure of regional GDP expanded by 1.4% y/y in... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) The penultimate set of public finances before the Autumn Budget on 22nd November provided some welcome good news for the Chancellor. However, the likely changes to the OBR’s forecasts could limit the... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What can the oil market learn from coal’s demise? The dramatic rise in renewable power has led to a sharp reduction in demand for coal and, until recently at least, had pushed coal prices down by more than 50% since 2011. A rapid rise in alternative... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s Jokowi failing to deliver on reform Joko Widodo (commonly known as Jokowi) came to power three years ago promising to reinvigorate the struggling economy and raise growth to 7%. Despite some encouraging progress at the start of his... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
