Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Riksbank to move ahead of the pack Economic prospects for the Nordic and Swiss economies are fairly bright. Although Switzerland had a disappointing start to the year in terms of GDP growth, the surveys are universally positive about... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Oct.) October’s rise in German Ifo business sentiment to a new record high underscores the positive outlook for the euro-zone’s largest economy, supporting our above-consensus view on German GDP growth. 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech coalition negotiations likely to be a long drag Events over the past 24 hours have confirmed our view that, while the centre-right ANO party would prevail in the country’s elections, the challenging part will be forming a coalition government... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canadian dollar likely to drop further next year After strengthening to US$0.82 in early September, interest rate differentials have pushed the Canadian dollar back down to US$0.79. We expect a further widening in rate differentials next year, with... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Our measure of M3 shows broad money growth rising in September to its fastest pace in more than two years, although growth in narrow money continues to slow gradually. 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade strengthens while NAFTA talks sour The latest CPB data suggest that world trade volumes rebounded in August. Taking a range of indicators into account, the big picture is that the global trade recovery is still underway. 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Valuation concerns haven’t deterred investors yet Q3 investment in mainland European commercial property was the highest on record for a third quarter, despite pricing concerns. At the same time, a lack of prime assets in key markets appears to be... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Oct.) Preliminary PMIs, published by Markit today, suggest that manufacturing growth in advanced economies started Q4 on a strong note. However, they also indicate that price pressures are still subdued. 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the US yield curve continue to flatten? We expect the US Treasury yield curve to continue to flatten, as the Fed raises rates further. But we don’t think that the curve will begin to invert – and flag up the risk of a recession – until 2019... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update NAFTA concerns boost lumber price Concerns that the US will withdraw from NAFTA has led to a jump in the price of lumber. Prices are now at a 4½ year high. However given that lumber accounts for a relatively small share of overall... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Data showing that Mexican inflation was unchanged in the first half of October compared to September as a whole, combined with the recent deprecation of the peso against the dollar, mean that... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Neom: is Saudi Arabia about to repeat past mistakes? Plans announced today by the Saudi government to construct a huge new economic city, called Neom, have grabbed the headlines but the Kingdom has poor form when it comes to implementing mega-projects... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Looking beyond the politics Attention this month has focused on political stories in Kenya, South Africa, and Angola. We will continue to cover these issues in other publications. While economic data released over the past month... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery to withstand political concerns Politics are in focus yet again, with the German and Austrian elections revealing reduced support for mainstream parties and the push for Catalan independence creating much uncertainty. But business... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Pockets of strength and weakness in China’s imports There was no clear trend in China’s September metals import data. Indeed, in many cases, we think incoming shipments appeared at odds with the underlying trends in domestic demand and supply. High... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
