Latin America Economics Update Pushing down our BRL forecasts Most currencies in Latin America have weakened against the dollar over the past month, but the Brazilian real and Mexican peso have suffered particularly large falls as the political mood in both... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Commodities to consolidate in 2018 Commodity prices have risen in the second half of 2017, boosted by strong Chinese demand and, in some cases, heightened geopolitical risk. Looking ahead, we expect prices to drift lower over the... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Price of Brent likely to slip back below $60 Growth in non-OPEC supply and lower geopolitical risks means that the price of Brent is unlikely to stay above $60 per barrel, even if OPEC extends its output cuts until the end of the year. 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth at multi-year high in August Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth picked up to its fastest pace in four-and-a-half years in August. However, there are some early signs that EM growth will ease over the coming months. 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central bank actions push bond yields down In October, a combination of rising bond yields in the US and lower bond yields at home pushed Nordic and Swiss currencies down against the dollar. Weaker exchange rates, as well as decent economic... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further downside for the Turkish lira The Turkish lira has strengthened a little today, but it has been the worst-performing major EM currency this month. We have revisited our forecasts and we now expect further falls in the currency... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Oct.) October’s falls in German and Spanish consumer price inflation support the ECB’s view that its eurozone inflation goal is not yet in sight. While the strength of the economy should boost underlying... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Catalonia impasse is not a new euro-zone crisis We think that financial markets are right to take a relaxed view of the constitutional crisis in Catalonia. The economic fallout for Spain itself should be small, and the risks to the euro-zone are... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does oil at $60pb mean for the Gulf? The rise in oil prices since the middle of the year could boost the Gulf’s oil export revenues by around $100bn, equal to 5% of regional GDP, on an annual basis. That would push current account... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) September’s household borrowing figures suggest that consumers remain confident enough to continue to borrow in order to smooth their spending against a backdrop of squeezed real incomes. Moreover... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Oct.) October’s rise in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment suggests that political uncertainty has had little effect on the economy. While the available hard data imply that euro-zone GDP... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Sep.) Mortgage lending edged downwards for a second consecutive month in September. This has partly been driven by the muted economic backdrop. But stalling house price growth and expectations of a rate... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that GDP growth remained strong in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe at the start of Q4. The surveys are consistent with growth... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Sep.) September’s figures reported an improvement in net lending to the UK’s commercial property sector. Nevertheless, in the grand scheme of things, the gains were modest. 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil tops $60 The price of crude oil jumped this week and briefly breached $60 per barrel in afternoon trading on Friday on the back of optimism that OPEC will extend its output cuts to the end of 2018. In contrast... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
