Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Egyptian pound: one year on from the float Tomorrow will mark one year since Egypt’s central bank announced that it would move to a floating exchange rate. As we explain in this Watch, a weaker pound has yet to support a major improvement in... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is it too late to stock up on Stockholm offices? Solid but slowing rates of employment growth in Sweden will provide continued impetus for Stockholm office rents. This will keep Stockholm towards the top of the pack in our total return rankings for... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Lenders will be quick to pass on today’s rate rise Today’s rise in Bank Rate is likely to be passed on to borrowers in full and in fairly short order. Admittedly, thanks to the popularity of fixed rate mortgages in recent years, many borrowers will... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Czech tightening cycle unlikely until next year The statement accompanying the Czech MPC’s meeting – at which it resumed its tightening cycle via a 25bp hike to the policy rate – was more dovish than we had anticipated. Accordingly, we think that... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC presses ahead with dovish hike The Monetary Policy Committee’s dovish comments and forecasts accompanying the first rise in interest rates for a decade left the markets anticipating only a very modest pace of monetary policy... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Nickel soars on positive outlook for electric vehicles The prices of most metals rose in October, despite some appreciation of the US dollar and somewhat softer economic data out of China. Optimism about future demand, notably associated with the electric... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank lending still rising steadily Credit growth has continued to pick up gradually in the euro-zone and Japan, and more strongly in the UK. In the US, the slowdown in growth in lending to the private sector has eased recently. 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Oct.) October’s improvement in the construction PMI confounded expectations. The improvement was broadbased, but led primarily by the commercial sector. 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB “patience” to see euro fall further The ECB seems set to raise interest rates even later than we had previously assumed and we are now pencilling in the first hike for September 2019. Accordingly, we have made small downward revisions... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth eases in October Our estimate of the aggregate Emerging Market manufacturing PMI suggests that manufacturing activity weakened at the start of the Q4. This slowdown appears to be broad-based across EM regions. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The large drop in stocks of crude and gasoline last week would appear, at first glance, to be a further sign that the oil market is tightening. But much of the reduction in crude stocks was due to... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The small drop back in the ISM Manufacturing Index in October from a 13-year high is little to worry about, and it still suggests that manufacturing output will rebound in the fourth quarter. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A fresh look at Central Europe’s populist shift The victory of the ANO party in the recent Czech election has put the spotlight back onto the rise of populism in Central Europe. In this Update, we take a closer look at the political and economic... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus History does not support pessimism about productivity potential Pessimism about the potential for future productivity growth and hence increases in living standards, based on recent poor productivity performance, is not well-founded. It provides no good reason to... 1st November 2017 · 26 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities on a tear October was another strong month for the prices of industrial metals and oil as optimism about demand prevailed while prospects for supply deteriorated. We are more cautious, however. There are now... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
