Japan Economics Update How free is Japan’s trade? President Trump drew attention this week to the difficulties US firms face trading with Japan. Japan’s tariff barriers are typically lower than those in the US but non-tariff barriers are... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: First thoughts on the 2018 budget draft The first draft of Nigeria’s 2018 budget suggests that the government will – yet again – set itself a spending target that is unlikely to be met. Borrowing will remain pretty limited, but the shift... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dovish ECB outlook implies slower yield rises Taking account of the ECB’s dovish tone at its last meeting, we have lowered our Bund yield forecasts for the next few years. As a result, the Bank’s stance bodes well for commercial property yields... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: Tightening cycle has much further to run The Romanian MPC’s decision to raise its overnight deposit interest rate represents a move to tighten monetary policy further. And the hawkish post-meeting press statement supports our view that... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) Annual house price inflation came in at 7% in September according to CoreLogic, as tight market conditions put further upward pressure on home values. However, higher mortgage interest rates, falling... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Latest jump in oil prices looks unsustainable Oil prices jumped in recent days on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East but, assuming that a direct conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is avoided, the fundamentals suggest... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The fall in Russian inflation to 2.7% y/y in October means another 25bp cut at the central bank’s Board meeting in December is highly likely. Inflation has probably reached a trough, but we expect the... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon’s dollar peg under threat as tensions mount The deterioration in relations between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia in recent days has raised fresh concerns over the sustainability of Lebanon’s dollar peg. While the country has substantial FX reserves... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) Although retail sales rose in September, the increase was not sufficient for the sector to match Q2’s performance in Q3. This suggests that total household spending was behind the slowdown in... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Oct.) The stability of China’s foreign exchange reserves last month masks a pick-up in FX purchases by the People’s Bank (PBOC). We believe this intervention is aimed at creating uncertainty over the short... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Full steam ahead in Q4 We estimate that the world economy expanded at a healthy pace of around 3½% annualised in Q3, as the US, euro-zone and UK all grew at a decent pace. Employment has been rising steadily, with jobs... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.) Today’s BRC survey adds to the evidence from the CBI last week that October was a poor month for retailers. However, that is at least partly down to unseasonably warm weather which looks to have... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) According to the Halifax index, house price growth accelerated in October. But the other indices recorded more modest gains. With prices already very high and interest rates starting to rise, we... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update High core inflation unlikely to trigger tightening Core inflation rose in September to six-year high, as rapid economic growth and a tight labour market continued to drive a pick-up underlying price pressures. But with growth soon likely to slow again... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s external vulnerabilities building Romania’s widening current account deficit is not quite as alarming as the headline figure would suggest, but rapid import growth has still increased the country’s dependence on capital inflows. With... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
