Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Where are Icelandic policy rates heading? Forecasters have been wrong-footed this year by the Central Bank of Iceland’s (CBI) rate cuts. This appears to be because the CBI has started to put more emphasis on a different inflation measure, and... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi sabre-rattling hits markets The anti-corruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia and mounting tensions between the Kingdom and Iran have unnerved investors this week, although the impact has been more acute in financial markets in the... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How are higher oil prices affecting US bonds and equities? 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Industrial outperformance has further to run UK commercial property looks to be on track to deliver total returns of approaching 10% this year, surpassing even our above-consensus forecasts. However, with interest rates now seemingly on a gently... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What have we learnt since the election? In the year since Donald Trump won the Presidential election, events outside of the US have had a bigger impact on the economy, but we doubt that will remain the case. We expect a deficit-financed... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The pick-up in Mexican inflation last month appears to be due in large part to temporary factors relating to September’s earthquakes. Nevertheless, the data strengthen the case for delaying interest... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four charts on the latest oil price move We continue to think that the latest leg-up in oil prices will be reversed. If not, there would be some upward pressure on global inflation, though little effect on demand, in the coming year or two. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up to a nine month high in October. Even so, they remained weak by the standard of recent years. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC unlikely to reach stocks target Even if OPEC extends its output cuts until the end of next year, stocks are still likely to exceed their fiveyear average, which should put some downward pressure on oil prices next year. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Markets underestimating Riksbank rate rises As today’s minutes show few signs that policymakers are concerned about the economy overheating, we have pushed back our forecast for a rate rise to September 2018. But we still expect rates to be... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output data held up in Q3 South African output data for September were disappointing. But a stronger performance earlier in Q3 probably kept headline growth pretty robust – by local standards – over the course of last quarter. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will the region’s Q3 GDP data look? The batch of preliminary Q3 GDP figures due next week in Emerging Europe are likely to show that growth accelerated in most of the region. While the pace of expansion probably softened a touch in... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines likely to keep rates on hold throughout 2018 Despite rising inflation, rapid credit growth and a weak currency the Philippines central bank (BSP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. While the consensus is expecting rate hikes next year... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.) Falling buyer interest and newly agreed sales point to further near-term weakness in housing market activity. That said, with the economic backdrop showing signs of improvement, mortgage approvals and... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Youth unemployment still a drag on potential growth The euro-zone’s youth unemployment rate remains worryingly high. To address this issue, this week’s Eurogroup meeting focused on plans to raise educational attainment, which is a very good place to... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further drop in Egyptian inflation in October, to 30.8% y/y from 31.6% y/y in September, is welcome but probably not enough for the central bank to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. We... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
