Energy Update Rise in US coal output not down to Trump The revival in the US coal industry is due to a surge in demand from China and solid domestic consumption, rather than any changes to legislation. However, rising supply, slowing economic growth in... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Oct.) In value terms, investment activity edged lower in October. However, it was encouraging that liquidity showed some tentative signs of improvement. What’s more, despite a smaller contribution from the... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will healthy economic growth continue to buoy the euro? 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets take rate hike in their stride The MPC succeeded in striking a dovish tone as it raised Bank Rate for the first time in a decade. While the Committee didn’t frame the hike as “one and done”, it did convince investors not to expect... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Bank lending has slowed in recent months and the BoJ’s Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a further weakening in coming months. However, brisk corporate bond issuance and record corporate profits... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the Fed prepared for the challenges ahead? The nomination of the relatively inexperienced Jerome Powell as Fed Chair comes at arguably a bad time as the FOMC has fewer professional economists and less experience than it has had in decades. The... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Italian economy finally turning a corner? This year, the Italian economy looks set to record its best performance since 2010. And we doubt that uncertainty in the run-up to next year’s general election will bring the recovery to a halt. But... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Sep.) House price inflation accelerated in September. But initial estimates on the official index tend to be revised down in later months. And with house prices high, as well as few signs of a revival in... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain: peg to stay intact, but austerity to be stepped up Reports that Bahrain’s government has requested financial support from its Gulf neighbours has raised fresh questions over the sustainability of the country’s dollar peg. We expect this financing to... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) The recent upward trend in CPI inflation came to a halt in October. And while inflation could still inch up a little further in November, it is now likely to be close to its peak. 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash GDP (Q3) & Industrial Prod’n (Sep.) The flash estimate of euro-zone Q3 GDP confirmed that the economy is in very good health. Admittedly, industrial production fell in September and the renewed rise in the euro exchange rate is a... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swe. Consumer Prices (Oct.), Nor. & Fin. GDP (Q3) As October’s drop in Swedish inflation was almost entirely due to energy, we are not convinced that it means QE will be extended in December. Meanwhile, following stronger-than-expected GDP growth in... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2017) Third quarter GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a nine-year high of 5.3% y/y. We still think growth will slow in 2018, but today’s... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3) & CPI (Oct.) Q3’s impressive 0.8% rise in German GDP suggests that growth this year and next will be slightly stronger than even our above consensus forecasts had implied. This may well increase the pressure from... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are the best days for risky assets really over? Risky assets have come under some pressure for the first time since the summer, when they were rattled by rising tensions between the US and North Korea. Nonetheless, we still don’t think that a major... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC appears optimistic about oil market rebalancing Lower OPEC output and brighter prospects for demand mean that the group is likely to be relatively cheerful at its meeting at the end of the month. However, unless the group reduces its production... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
