Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Oct.) Russia’s activity data for October suggest that growth remained soft at the start of Q4, at around 1.7% y/y. October data for Poland (also released today) were much stronger and suggest that GDP... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Oct.) The latest output data for October, released today, point to a tighter aluminium market. Whilst the planned closures in China could provide some support to prices over the coming months, growth in... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q3) GDP growth in Chile picked up strongly in Q3 and we expect the recovery to continue over the next year or so. The outcome of the elections is unlikely to have a major bearing on the economic outlook. 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks suggest that demand is slowing Total exchange stocks of nearly all the metals have fallen since the start of the year, which goes some way to justifying the rally in prices. The exceptions are tin and copper inventories. However... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five key points on Chile’s elections Centre-right ex-president Sebastián Piñera won yesterday’s election in Chile but by a smaller margin than expected and will now face Alejandro Guillier in a second-round run-off on 17th December... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets shrug off ratings upgrade Indian markets appear to have taken last week’s ratings upgrade from Moody’s in their stride, with the rupee recording only very small gains against the US dollar and the 10-year bond yield staying... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3 2017) The weaker-than-expected pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth in Q3, to 1.4% y/y, was driven entirely by a rebound in oil production, while the non-oil sector weakened. We don’t think these data will affect... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Little evidence of progress While the Government is yet to be defeated on the European Union Withdrawal Bill, there was little sign of the negotiations approaching “sufficient progress” this week. Given only two weeks remain for... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s current account improvement unlikely to last The narrowing in Brazil’s current account deficit over the past couple of years has been driven almost entirely by a recession-induced collapse in imports. As a result, the deficit is likely to widen... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Risky assets fall out of favour The falls in the prices of industrial commodities this week were in line with the broader downturn in riskier assets, including equities. However, factors specific to commodity markets, notably China... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Households mostly well placed for policy tightening Although their finances will come under some pressure as interest rates rise, households in most advanced economies should be able to cope. Debt burdens are low by past standards and, provided that... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the labour market succumbing to Brexit uncertainty? The strength of the labour market has been a key source of comfort since the Brexit vote. But this week’s labour market figures – which revealed a 14,000 fall in employment in the three months to... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada already doubting itself Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkin’s speech earlier this week suggested that the Bank of Canada is already beginning to doubt its earlier upbeat assessment of the economic outlook, which was behind its... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We expect the rally in the dollar to resume before long 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) The drop in the headline inflation rate to 1.4% in October, from 1.6%, mainly reflects the drop in energy prices, which have already begun to rise again. More importantly, all three core inflation... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is another household debt problem brewing? Households’ balance sheets are in good shape; debt as a share of income has remained stable, net wealth is at a record high, and debt service costs are below their long-run average. However, the... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
