China Activity Monitor Growth slows Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth slowed for a third month in succession in October, dropping to the weakest pace in over a year. With property curbs biting and credit... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Solid economic growth supports steady rise in rents The European economic recovery has been extended into the final quarter of the year, yet inflation remains well below target in most economies. As a result, occupier demand continued in a strong vein... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf dollar pegs well placed to weather geopolitical risks The escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran has raised fresh concerns about the region’s dollar pegs. While a devaluation in Lebanon is not out of the question, there are good reasons to... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Investors cautious about periphery markets Investment across the euro-zone in Q3 reached a record for a third quarter, supported by increasing amounts of foreign capital. However, with the prime all-property yield falling by just 5bps, the... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How long until the next big correction in the US stock market? 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Changes in UK tax will not affect oil prices Changes to the tax treatment of some North Sea oil and gas fields will no doubt be welcomed by the industry and could help to prevent production falling back over the next few years. However, we doubt... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The unexpected rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of November has increased the chances that the central bank will restart its tightening cycle in the next few months. However, we still think... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB takes further easing off the table The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) made it pretty clear at today’s MPC meeting, at which the policy rate was left unchanged at 6.75%, that any additional easing is off the cards. As a result, we... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Nov.) The rebound in the CBI distributive trades survey was especially reassuring given the larger sample size behind this month’s figures. And the notable strength in the forward-looking balances suggests... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov.) The further increase in Brazilian inflation in the first half of November, which was in line with expectations, is unlikely to alter the thinking of COPOM, and we continue to expect a 50bp cut in the... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Is sentiment towards grains and soybeans too bearish? The November crop estimates from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) painted quite a bearish picture for grains and soybean prices. In this Commodities Watch, we discuss the latest changes to the... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Second estimate of GDP (Q3) The second estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that the economy grew modestly, with households leading the way. Looking ahead, we think that there is scope for a bit of a pick-up in growth, rather than a... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s sharp rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy is growing very strongly and we doubt that political uncertainty in Germany will change that. 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Response – Chancellor defies OBR’s gloom As expected, the Chancellor Philip Hammond was constrained by the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) gloom over the economic outlook. Nonetheless, recent favourable fiscal trends and some timely... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Higher exports and the continued recovery in demand from refineries helped to drawdown stocks of crude oil last week. While we think that stocks will continue to fall, for the next few weeks at least... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Oct.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 5.9% y/y increase in global steel production in October and a 5.3% rise in January-October, driven by growth in most of the largest steel-producing... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
