Capital Daily What is the bond market telling us about the stock market? 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Another disappointing Budget for housing Any hopes that the Chancellor would come up with a new and innovative approach to boosting the UK’s housing supply in today’s Budget were soundly disappointed. In fact, on the issue of planning reform... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Does the flatter yield curve signal a recession? The flattening of the yield curve over the past couple of months is not a signal that a recession is on the way. Instead, it is mainly due to a drop back in the term premium on longer-dated bonds... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The fall in durable goods orders in October was entirely driven by a drop back in the volatile transport category. The underlying details suggest that business equipment investment continues to expand... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the yield curve a crystal ball for future growth? It is often claimed that the yield curve is a good leading indicator of economic growth, with inversions signalling impending recessions. But its track record suggests that it shouldn’t be relied upon... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is monetary policy becoming less relevant? The tightening of global monetary policy over the next few years represents a headwind to commodity prices, especially precious metals. However, the reduction in equilibrium interest rates over the... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to accelerate further in 2018 We expect economic growth in most countries in Latin America to accelerate further in 2018. Of the region’s major economies, we anticipate a pick-up in growth next year in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian banks are on the mend, but recovery will be slow Italy’s banks are on the mend, but it will be a very long time before they get a clean bill of health. As long as they remain weak, the economic recovery will be vulnerable to a loss of confidence in... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More to EM rebound than trade The latest data continue to show a broad acceleration in GDP growth across most of the emerging world. A common thread has been a pick-up in exports, with volumes growth now up on the start of the... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: surveys point to a marked rise in core inflation Core inflation has been slower to rise in Poland than in the rest of Central Europe this year, but survey-based measures of price expectations suggest that it is set to pick up markedly over the... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) The decline in South African headline inflation last month, to 4.8% y/y, and softening core price pressures may temper expectations in the market for interest rate hikes in the next few months. But... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Could it all happen again? Ten years after the beginnings of the global financial crisis, the risks of something similar occurring again in the near future appear to be fairly low. The amount of risky lending has been reduced... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Did the hurricanes lead to a surge in delinquencies? The first report on mortgage delinquencies since the September hurricanes shows a large rise in payment problems in both Texas and Florida. But we suspect that primarily represents borrowers who could... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q3) The pick-up in Peruvian GDP growth in Q3 was due entirely to a surge in domestic demand, with net trade dragging on growth. While we expect the economic recovery to continue over the coming quarters... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s National Bank missing the bigger picture The Hungarian MPC left both its three-month and overnight deposit rates on hold today but the Council announced unconventional measures to ease policy, including interest rate swaps and a mortgage... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) Existing home sales rose for the second month in a row in October, with a larger than expected gain of 2.0% m/m. But that rise has only worsened what was an already very low level of inventory. With... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
