US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) After falling for three months in a row, the 13.7% m/m rise in housing starts in October is welcome news. Admittedly, much of the rise was driven by the very volatile multifamily sector, which is... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A closer look at Lebanon’s FX debt burden The political crisis in Lebanon has raised fears that the authorities will be forced to devalue the pound. One thing that has often been overlooked, though, is the risk that this could force the... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Buoyant Germany brightens euro-zone prospects Data this week confirmed that the euro-zone had a very good Q3, with a 0.6% rise in quarterly GDP pushing the annual growth rate up to 2.5% – the highest since early 2011. This was stronger than the 2... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy isn’t running into capacity constraints yet We don’t find compelling evidence to support the argument that the slowdown in Russia’s economy in Q3 was the result of mounting capacity constraints. In contrast, our view is that there is still a... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What do we make of the AMV metric? By adding a guide to the probability, and scale of the downside risks to capital values, the PIA’s new Adjusted Market Value measure is a positive contribution to the debate about property pricing... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Recovery in Thailand unlikely to lead to policy tightening Thailand’s economy has rebounded strongly over the past year, with Q3 GDP figures due to be published on Monday likely to show the country growing at its strongest pace in over four years. The... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore vulnerable even without steel output cuts Government-mandated steel production cuts in China this winter will exacerbate the decrease in demand for iron ore resulting from a weak construction sector and a slowdown in economic growth. As such... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s judicial reforms, the EU and sanctions: a primer The European Parliament moved one step closer to sanctioning Poland earlier this week in response to the government’s controversial proposals to reform the judiciary. In this Update, we explain how... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending suffers as inflation nears peak With real incomes under pressure from subdued nominal pay growth and rising inflation, it isn’t surprising that spending growth on the high street lost more momentum. Indeed, annual retail sales... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus One year on: the impact of Trump on commodities markets The prices of many industrial commodities rallied in the wake of Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, buoyed by hopes of substantial fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending. Market... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Moody’s highlights positives, overlooks concerns Moody’s has highlighted a number of genuine positive recent developments in India as justifications for a ratings upgrade – though its inclusion of demonetisation among them should raise some eyebrows... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons on unemployment and inflation If the Reserve Bank of Australia were to learn from its recent forecasting failures, it would conclude that the unemployment rate will continue to fall by more than it expects but that underlying... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt holds rates, but December cut on the cards Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Egypt to keep interest rates on hold was not a major surprise given that the recent falls in inflation have been fairly modest. But data to be released in the... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Prospects for world trade quite good, despite Trump Fears that Donald Trump’s election sounded the death knell for globalisation have so far proven wide of the mark. Admittedly, there are still some threats to the outlook, and there is little chance of... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Preview – OBR will box the Chancellor in The Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre in the Budget on 22nd November will be severely restricted by a gloomier outlook for economic growth. We expect a broadly fiscally neutral package of measures to... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Nordic house price inflation slowing House price inflation in several Nordic economies is slowing, and in some cases sharply. In Sweden housing inflation fell to 6.7% in October, its slowest in four years. And in Stockholm, where prices... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
