Global Markets Update Is the US stock market in for a taxing time? It is tempting to attribute the 20% surge in the S&P 500 since the US elections last November to the prospect of tax reform. But while this may have played a role, it does not appear to have been the... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What does the median transaction price tell us? The low interest rate environment has driven buyers to purchase more expensive kinds of homes than they would have done 10 years ago. That helps to explain why buyer leverage is higher than 10 years... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q3) The RICS Construction Survey for the third quarter showed that private commercial and industrial construction activity rose at a similar pace to Q2. 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) The 0.5% m/m increase in manufacturing sales values in September, driven by an increase in sales volumes, points to a potential rebound in industrial production. That’s an encouraging sign for GDP... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further easing in Indonesia likely to be very gradual Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% does not mean the easing cycle is over. However, with worries growing about the strength of the rupiah, we think any... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Oct.) China’s October activity and investment data underpin our view that the economy started to slow in the second half of this year and point to softer growth in metals demand. 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) October’s official retail sales figures supported the timelier surveys in suggesting that spending on the high street has lost more momentum. But we doubt that sales growth will slow much further. 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The road back to normal monetary policy In our view, the tightening of global monetary policy in the coming years need not be all that substantial. This is largely because equilibrium interest rates have fallen a long way in the past few... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) While employment growth came off the boil in October, the labour market still appears to be simmering along nicely. The problem is that this has yet to translate into faster growth of retail sales and... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax reform: what happens next? The Republicans appear to be making reasonable progress on tax reform but, with several key challenges yet to be resolved, there is still a long way to go before a final bill is ready for President... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil leads the pack Commodity indices have surged over the last month, driven by higher oil prices. This has led to a break in the usually close inverse relationship with the US dollar. The energy sub-index was the best... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Learning the lessons from Fed-related sell-offs Periodic bouts of investor concern over Fed policy tightening appear to be having less and less effect on financial markets in EMs. That being said, the one consistent theme that emerges from our... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3) Colombian GDP growth picked up from 1.2% y/y in Q2 to 2.0% y/y in Q3, and we expect the economy to continue to recover in 2018 as oil output returns to growth and the drag from fiscal austerity eases. 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Rising production and imports caused a build in crude inventories last week, but a fall in consumption of oil products will add to concerns about a slowdown in demand, which could weigh on prices. 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
